Bitcoin trader sees gold 'blow-off top' as XAU nears new $3.3K record

Bitcoin (BTC) faces an uphill struggle as a safe haven in 2025 as gold fund inflows circle $80 billion.

Data from Bank of America (BoA) uploaded to X by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter on April 15 confirms gold’s “best streak” since 2013.

Gold beats records as Bitcoin ETFs slump

As the US trade war sees investors flee to gold, Bitcoin has lost the limelight as a hedge against macroeconomic volatility.

BoA figures show inflows to gold funds beating records, with data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView capturing new all-time highs for XAU/USD near $3,300 per ounce on April 16.

“Gold fund net inflows have hit a record $80 BILLION year-to-date. This is 2 TIMES more than the previous high set in the full year 2020,” Kobeissi noted. 

“Investors are pouring money into gold at a record pace as the market uncertainty has skyrocketed. As a result, gold prices have rallied 22% year-to-date and have outperformed every other major asset class.”

Gold fund flows chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

BTC price action, by contrast, paints a very different picture. Despite the appearance of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing global integration, BTC/USD reached five-month lows earlier in April.

Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode calculates that the ETFs’ combined assets under management fell from $106 billion at the start of the year to $92 billion this week.

“Gold prices have also hit 52 all-time highs over the last year, posting the best streak in 12 years,” Kobeissi concluded. 

“Gold is the global safe haven.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Glassnode

Gold “terminal top” meets Bitcoin bulls

Despite its repeated new records, market commentators already see gold’s unprecedented upside coming to an end.

Related: Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price ‘seasonality?’

Addressing the topic on X this week, veteran trader Peter Brandt called a “blow-off top” on XAU/USD.

“Gold has now entered its blow-off stage,” he summarized. 

“Such rapid advancement will come to a terminal top, but attempting to pick a high can be very expensive. Blow off tops can extend well beyond a bear's ability to meet margin calls.”

XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X

A gold comedown may well leave room for Bitcoin to catch up, per a popular theory that says that BTC/USD copies gold trends with a delay of several months.

Great chart from my Partner, David Foley.
Shows how Gold moves first, Bitcoin follows harder. Scale different for each.@DAAF17 pic.twitter.com/jHMe6apewj

— Lawrence Lepard (@LawrenceLepard) April 13, 2025

“Nobody really knows why that happens,” Professional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano told CNBC on April 15.

Pompliano suggested that traditional financial entities were either unauthorized or simply “not used” to the idea of Bitcoin as protection against macro uncertainty.

“What we do see though is that when gold runs, about 100 days later or so, Bitcoin not only catches up; it usually runs much harder, and so you get that higher volatility,” he said.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.