Bitcoin Trader Selling Pressure Declining, CryptoQuant Head Explains Why

The head of research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why selling pressure from Bitcoin traders may be declining.

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has discussed why the short-term holder selling pressure may be declining for BTC. The “short-term holders” (STHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago.

The STHs include the “traders” of the market who make many moves within short periods and don’t tend to HODL their coins. This group can be quite reactive to market movements, easily panic selling whenever a crash or rally takes place.

Generally, investors in profits are more likely to sell their coins, so one way to gauge whether the STHs would be likely to take part in a selloff is through their profit/loss margin.

Here, Moreno has cited the profit/loss margin of this cohort based on its realized price.

The STH realized price (highlighted in pink) here refers to the average cost basis or acquisition price of the investors part of this cohort calculated using blockchain transaction history.

When the spot value of the cryptocurrency is above this level, it means that these holders as a whole are sitting on some net profits right now. On the other hand, the price being below the metric implies the dominance of losses.

From the above chart, it’s visible that Bitcoin has been above the STH realized price for the last few months, meaning that these traders have been enjoying profits.

This is typical during bull markets as the price keeps pushing up, letting these investors make profits. While STHs tend to stay in the green in these periods, tops do become probable to take place if these profits get extreme.

As is apparent in the graph, the profit/loss margin spiked to significant levels just as BTC set its latest all-time high, which continues to be the top thus far.

Recently, as Bitcoin has consolidated between the $60,000 to $70,000 range, the STH realized price has rapidly risen, now attaining a value of around $60,000. This occurs because as STHs have traded in this range, their acquisition prices have been repriced at these higher levels, thus pushing up the average.

BTC has been quite close to this level recently so that the STHs wouldn’t be holding that much profit now. “Bitcoin selling pressure from traders may be declining as unrealized profit margins are basically zero now,” notes the CryptoQuant head.

Bitcoin has continued to show action contained within its recent range as its price is still trading around $65,200.