Bitcoin Warning Signs? Long-Term Holders Exit While Retail Buyers Rush In

As Bitcoin (BTC) retreats from its recent all-time high (ATH) of $111,814 – currently trading in the mid-$100,000 range – emerging on-chain data signals that the cryptocurrency’s strong momentum over the past month may be waning.

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Amr Taha, the Bitcoin market is undergoing several notable on-chain shifts. These include significant stablecoin outflows from Binance, a decline in long-term holder (LTH) participation, and diverging accumulation patterns among wallet cohorts.

One of the most striking indicators is the net outflow of over $1 billion in stablecoins from Binance. This suggests traders are moving funds off the exchange and into private wallets, typically a sign of reduced risk appetite or diminished intent to buy crypto in the near term.

Such large-scale stablecoin withdrawals often indicate declining buying power and can precede a loss of market momentum or a shift toward profit-taking and caution. If the trend continues, BTC may slip further, potentially losing the psychologically important $100,000 level.

In parallel, long-term holders (LTH) have also pulled back. The Net Position Realized Cap for LTHs plummeted from $28 billion to just $2 billion by the end of May 2025 – signaling that these investors are no longer increasing their exposure despite the recent price surge.

Further, 60-day wallet behavior trends point to a divergence in market sentiment. Large holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have been gradually offloading their positions, while smaller retail cohorts holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have been aggressively accumulating, buying into the rally. Taha remarked:

The combination of heavy stablecoin withdrawals, reduced LTH accumulation, and shifting cohort behaviors signals a market in transition. Whether this sets the stage for a cooling-off period, a healthy consolidation, or renewed momentum will depend on how new capital re-enters the system and whether retail buyers can sustain the current rally without institutional reinforcement.

While the aforementioned data points hint toward a potential looming price correction for the apex digital asset, other on-chain data shows that BTC is likely to continue its upward trajectory, potentially to new ATHs.

CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan recently highlighted that the Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) metric supports a continued upward trajectory, noting that current profit-taking levels are modest compared to previous cycle peaks.

Additionally, BTC outflows from centralized exchanges are increasing, with a recent 7,883 BTC withdrawal from Coinbase. This could point to renewed institutional interest and accumulation in anticipation of another upward move. At press time, BTC trades at $103,854, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours.