Bitcoin’s $60K price floor is back in play as Hormuz oil shock returns

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Monday as oil rose and equity futures retreated after another round of U.S. strikes against Iran.

The strikes and Bitcoin's drop coincided, but it is not the full story. Thin weekend trading, fund flows, and crypto-specific selling were also part of the mix.

CryptoSlate market data showed Bitcoin near $62,774 early Monday, down about 1.9% over 24 hours, after a low of $62,565.

That leaves Bitcoin much closer to $60,000 than it was before the weekend, when the asset traded near $64,000 despite renewed fighting.

U.S. Central Command said the latest strikes began at 5 p.m. ET on July 12 and targeted Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Associated Press reporting confirmed a new round of attacks as Washington and Tehran disputed control of the waterway.

Brent crude is up 4.7% at $79.59 a barrel, and U.S. crude rose 4.8% at $74.85. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Dow futures lost 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.3%.

The dollar and Treasury yields also firmed. Bloomberg data, carried by Swissinfo, showed its dollar gauge up 0.1%, the two-year Treasury yield at 4.23%, and the 10-year yield at 4.58%.

Oil holding near $80 keeps the inflation flame alive, giving the dollar and borrowing costs room to climb. Bitcoin then has to compete with more attractive alternatives such as cash and bonds as investors pull back from risk.

Prediction markets are already pricing meaningful movement on both sides. Markets are pricing a 57.5% chance that Bitcoin would touch $60,000 during July and a 65% chance it would touch $65,000. The probabilities overlap because both levels could be reached in the same month.

A sustained break below the $62,565 daily low would remove the market's nearest cushion. If that happens while Brent remains around $80, the dollar and yields keep rising, and equity futures extend their losses, a test of $60,000 would become more plausible.

The opposite signal would be a recovery through the $64,300 local high alongside easing oil prices and steadier stock futures. That would suggest Monday's move was another range test, not a completed breakdown.

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