Bitcoin’s Holiday Price Rebound Signals Return of Institutional Confidence, Says QCP Capital

Bitcoin’s recent surge past $87,000 may mark more than a typical holiday rally, according to a new report from Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital.

Analysts at the firm say the move reflects growing signs of renewed institutional interest, with spot Bitcoin ETFs flipping back to net inflows after a week of significant outflows.

In a research note released Monday, QCP analysts noted that last week saw net inflows of $13.4 million into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.

This marked a reversal from the previous week’s $708 million in outflows, a shift that coincided with Bitcoin’s sharp rally during the Easter holiday period.

“While crypto markets are used to low-liquidity weekend rallies, this one was different,” the analysts wrote.

“BTC clawed back much of the recent selloff triggered by Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ comments, and the move stood in stark contrast to the subdued Santa Rally seen in December.”

The analysts believe this surge—paired with inflows into ETFs—could point to a return of institutional safe-haven demand for Bitcoin, especially as traditional markets falter.

They noted that gold has hit record highs while equities have pulled back, suggesting a risk-off sentiment is taking hold across financial markets.

Despite the optimism, QCP cautioned that Bitcoin must break through the $88,800 resistance level before confirming a sustained bullish trend.

“We remain cautious about drawing firm conclusions until BTC can establish itself above that key level,” the report stated.

Most of last week’s ETF inflows went to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which attracted $186.5 million, followed by Bitwise’s BITB with $23.8 million, according to Farside data.

Smaller contributions came from ETFs like Grayscale’s mini BTC Trust, VanEck’s HODL, Invesco’s BTCO, and Franklin’s EZBC, which added a combined $26.3 million.

Bitcoin’s recent rally to $87,000 has brought renewed optimism, but many Short-Term Holders (STHs) remain in the red.

According to CryptoQuant, those holding BTC for less than six months are still facing an average unrealized loss of 5.18%, with their realized price hovering around $91,000. This level now serves as a crucial psychological and structural resistance for the market.

Bitcoin's Realized Cap Hits Record High

“The rise in Realized Cap is a positive signal, showing increasing confidence in both the network and the asset, and suggesting that we may not have reached the top of the market cycle just yet.” – By @oro_crypto pic.twitter.com/Ob9ThP4k3E

On a brighter note, new investors—those who bought within the past month—have flipped back into profit, now seeing an average gain of 3.73%.

However, risks persist. Unless Bitcoin decisively breaks and holds above the $91,000 mark, STHs will remain underwater, maintaining pressure on the market.

A failure to clear this level could lead to renewed sell-offs, especially if upward momentum stalls. For a true reset in sentiment, a clean breakout above $91K is essential, the firm said.

Just recently, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his December prediction that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 before the close of 2025.

Hougan argued that recent developments in U.S. trade policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff push, could act as tailwinds for Bitcoin.

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