Bitcoin’s new highs may have been driven by Japan bond market crisis

Bitcoin’s recent all-time high may be linked to ongoing issues in the Japanese bond market, possibly signaling BTC’s growing recognition as a hedge against instability in the traditional financial (TradFi) system.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price rose to a new all-time high of $112,000 on May 22, before retracing to change hands above $109,700 at the time of writing on May 26, Cointelegraph data shows.

While some attributed the rally to geopolitical developments, including US President Donald Trump’s announcement of Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks on May 19, macroeconomic factors appear to be playing a larger role, according to market analysts.

Bitwise’s head of European research, André Dragosch, pointed to growing concerns around Japan’s sovereign credit outlook, highlighting a spike in the country’s long-term bond yields.

The 30-year yield on Japanese bonds reached a new all-time high of 3.185% on May 20, 2025, before retreating to 3.115% on May 23, TradingView data shows.

Related: $1M Bitcoin by 2030: Big names predict massive debt-driven BTC rally

Government bonds are typically considered safe-haven assets. But when yields rise sharply, it often signals investor concerns about fiscal sustainability and repayment risk. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, compared to Germany’s 62%, yet both countries had 30-year bond yields near 3.1% on May 21, noted The Kobeissi Letter.

“Because yields are increasing, sustainability becomes more of an issue, meaning credit risk increases, meaning yields increase even more,” Dragosch said. “And so you end up in this kind of fiscal debt doom loop.”

Dragosch said the growing volatility in Japan’s bond market could be prompting some institutional investors to reconsider Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against sovereign default risk.

“This is now affecting other bond markets, especially the US Treasury market,” Dragosch added.

Related: Crypto, NFTs are a lifeboat in the sinking fiat system: Finance Redefined

Japan’s bond market instability raises sovereign credit risk concerns, leading to more Bitcoin adoption among TradFi participants, Dragosch told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Perceived default risk continues rising, yields continue rising? This is a rough benchmark of why Bitcoin could be heading toward $200,000,” Dragosch said, adding that this remains conditional on continued Bitcoin accumulation by corporations and exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders.

Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are less than $1.3 billion away from surpassing the monthly inflow record of $6.49 billion from November 2024, Cointelegraph reported on May 23.

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