Hougan’s optimistic outlook is driven by a comprehensive analysis of market dynamics and key economic factors that he believes will act as significant bullish catalysts for cryptocurrency.

Source: Bitwise

Conditions for $80,000 Bitcoin

Hougan wrote that for Bitcoin to hit $80,000, the following conditions needs to be met.

1) Election: Anything but a Democratic Sweep

The U.S. election is a big deal for crypto. Most people assume it’s a binary outcome: Trump = Good, Harris = Bad.

Undoubtedly, Republican wins portend well for crypto, given the GOP’s strong and growing advocacy for the space. I think it’s more nuanced on the Democratic side.

The Democratic Party has disparate views on crypto, from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) “Anti-Crypto Army” to Representative Ritchie Torres’ (D-N.Y.) deep support. The problem of the past four years is that the Warren wing has controlled policy and agency appointments, and that has created a hostile environment for the sector.

To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way. And barring a Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect they will, with the Democrats taking a more neutral approach to the industry.

You can already see Democrats bending to this reality in comments like this one from Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, who said recently, “crypto is inevitable.”

I suspect that kind of attitude will be enough to get us to $80,000.

2) Economy: Two Rate Cuts + Added Global Stimulus

The number one reason people are attracted to bitcoin is simple: You can’t trust the government with money. That idea helped birth bitcoin in 2008 and remains a powerful driver of crypto today. It’s become so well accepted that even BlackRock is using it in its marketing pitches for bitcoin.

It’s why crypto rallied when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points despite a growing U.S. economy, and why it surged when China unleashed 2 trillion yuan in economic stimulus in late September.

The market is hungry for more. It currently expects an additional 50 bps in easing from the Federal Reserve by year’s end, and additional fiscal stimulus from China as well.

If it gets both, I suspect we will get our Q4 rally. If we don’t, I think the disappointment could weigh on the market.

3) Crypto: No Major Negative Surprises

The final thing we need to get our $80,000 rally is a period with no major surprises. No major hacks. No massive new lawsuits. No previously locked coins suddenly coming to market.

Crypto’s history is unfortunately beset by countless such surprises. Over the past few quarters, the release of previously locked-up bitcoin from the failed exchange Mt. Gox and from government coffers has contributed to keeping us range-bound.

If we can make it through the end of the year without similar shocks, I’d expect new all-time highs and beyond.

Hougan released his latest analysis, highlighting Bitcoin’s outstanding performance in the first quarter of 2024. During this time, Bitcoin surged significantly, achieving new peaks above $73,000. This remarkable increase was primarily fueled by heightened demand following the introduction of Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), offering investors easier ways to buy Bitcoin.

Furthermore, Hougan emphasized that the successful launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs was pivotal in enhancing investor trust and attracting institutional interest. This rise in demand not only elevated Bitcoin to unprecedented levels but also established a robust base for continued expansion in the upcoming months.

Bitcoin Could Reach $80K Pending Election Outcome

Currently, Hougan is confident that BTC has the potential to surpass its current all-time high and approach the $80,000 mark by December 2024. He outlined three primary conditions that must be met for Bitcoin to achieve this ambitious target. These conditions encompass political developments, monetary policy adjustments, and the overall stability of the cryptocurrency market.

A key element in Hougan’s forecast is the outcome of the upcoming U.S. Presidential elections. He argues that a Republican victory would greatly benefit the crypto sector, especially with former President Donald Trump’s increasing support for digital currencies. Hougan expects a Republican administration to create a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.

Conversely, Hougan noted that the Democratic Party shows less enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. For example, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a leading Democrat, is known for her anti-crypto stance and has consistently advocated for policies that could impose stricter regulations on the industry.

Hougan also mentions Polymarket predictions which suggest a 54% chance of a Republican presidency, 73% Republican control in the Senate, and a 62% chance for a Democrat-led House following the 2024 elections. The odds of a Republican sweep stand at 32%, with a 20% chance for Democrats.

Beyond politics, Hougan highlighted economic factors that could propel Bitcoin’s price upward. He argued that two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a global stimulus package might elevate Bitcoin’s value to $80,000. Specifically, an additional 50 basis points reduction from the FED, combined with China’s fiscal stimulus, could establish a supportive economic environment for Bitcoin, leading to a significant rally in the fourth quarter of 2024. At the time of writing Bitcoin is trading at $59,912, marking a 1.31% decline in the last 24 hours.

Despite positive economic news in the US, the Bitcoin price is yet to return to the peaks it achieved in September Market Stability Essential for Bitcoin’s Growth

Hougan also emphasized the critical need for market stability in achieving Bitcoin’s projected price increase. He underscored the importance of avoiding bearish surprises such as security breaches, new lawsuits, or the sudden release of previously locked coins into the market. These events have historically exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, hindering its ability to maintain upward momentum.

For example, Hougan noted that Bitcoin’s price remained relatively range-bound following the release of previously locked Bitcoin from the failed Mt. Gox exchange. Such incidents demonstrate how unexpected negative developments can disrupt market stability and impede price growth. Therefore, maintaining a stable market environment devoid of disruptive events is crucial for Bitcoin to achieve its $80,000 target.

In addition to the factors mentioned, the regulatory environment and institutional support play pivotal roles in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. A favorable regulatory framework can encourage more institutional investors to enter the market, providing additional liquidity and driving demand. Conversely, stringent regulations could deter investment and stifle market growth.