Bitwise Sticks to $200K Bitcoin Price Target Despite Rising Global Tensions

Despite mounting global trade tensions and economic uncertainty, institutional crypto investment firm Bitwise remains confident in its bold year-end Bitcoin price forecast.

In a blog post published April 9, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his December prediction that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 before the close of 2025.

Hougan argued that recent developments in U.S. trade policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff push, could act as tailwinds for Bitcoin.

According to Hougan, the administration’s apparent willingness to weaken the U.S. dollar—despite risking its role as the world’s reserve currency—could ultimately benefit decentralized assets like Bitcoin.

He pointed to an April 7 speech by Steve Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, who criticized the dollar’s reserve status for distorting global trade and undermining American manufacturing.

Hougan believes a deliberate shift away from a strong dollar could have both immediate and lasting consequences for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

“In the short term, there’s a well-documented inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin,” Hougan wrote. “Dollar down equals Bitcoin up. I expect this pattern to continue.”

The DXY, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has dropped over 7% since the start of 2025, per TradingView data.

Over the long run, Hougan envisions a move away from a single global reserve currency toward a diversified system.

In this future, he sees Bitcoin and gold playing a more prominent role in international finance.

“If the dollar’s stability comes into question, governments and corporations will have to look elsewhere,” he added.

Supporting this view, VanEck recently reported that China and Russia have begun settling some energy transactions in Bitcoin, hinting at a possible shift in global trade dynamics.

Meanwhile, Trump has temporarily paused most of his proposed reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, while maintaining a 10% tariff on all nations except China, which faces a 125% rate.

Crypto analyst Will Clemente echoed Hougan’s optimism, calling Bitcoin “the fastest horse” amid global economic uncertainty.

Coming out of this drawdown, likely post-intervention, I feel strongly that Bitcoin will be the fastest horse.

It's a pure reflection of liquidity and no earnings, if anything, economic uncertainty/deglobalization are positive for Bitcoin.

Feeling marginally more bullish. pic.twitter.com/67o2kHBJgk

Meanwhile, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has argued that China’s response to U.S. tariffs—particularly a potential devaluation of the yuan—could ignite a fresh wave of capital flight into Bitcoin.

Drawing parallels to previous years like 2013 and 2015, Hayes argued that similar economic conditions led Chinese investors to turn to BTC as a hedge against currency depreciation.

If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients.

CNY deval = narrative that Chinese capital flight will flow into $BTC.

It worked in 2013 , 2015, and can work in 2025.

Ignore China at your own peril. pic.twitter.com/LAOeQZEjZt

As reported, cryptocurrency markets faced a brutal correction on what’s being dubbed “Black Monday,” with total liquidations exceeding $1.36 billion in the day.

Crypto wasn’t alone in the selloff. U.S. stock futures also plunged Sunday night, heightening fears of a broader market crash.

S&P 500 futures fell 5.98%, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 6.2%, and Dow futures dropped 5.5%, all pointing to a chaotic start to the trading week.

BTC is currently trading at around $81,700, up 7.5% in the past 24 hours, despite a 32% pullback from its January peak—mirroring past bull market corrections.

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