BTC Pushes Past $117K Liquidity Wall After $429M ETF Inflows – Bullish Breakout or Bear Trap?

Bitcoin (BTC) has pushed through the $117,000 liquidity wall, climbing close to $118,000 as renewed strength from U.S. spot ETF inflows puts the bulls back in control.

Data from SoSoValue shows ETFs recorded $429.9 million in net inflows on September 30, marking the second consecutive day of gains and driving October’s early momentum.

BlackRock’s IBIT led with $199.43 million, followed by Ark Invest’s ARKB at $105.74 million and Fidelity’s FBTC with $54.7 million, bringing the total value traded to $3.26 billion.

Bitcoin $116K Push Paints a “Squeeze Fakeout” as Analysts Warn of CME Gap and Bearish Reversal

Traders are now closely watching two key liquidity clusters, one lower near $107K, where billions of dollars in long positions could still be liquidated, and another higher around $118K, where shorts could be forced to cover.

Crypto trader TradeWithThanos argues that the recent pump to $116K was designed to spark euphoria, setting a new monthly high before selling off to close the CME gap.

He expects resistance between $117,500 and $119,000, with a potential move lower toward the $111K–$112K range, where liquidity and an unfilled CME gap remain.

Another analyst described the move as a “squeeze fakeout” on the daily timeframe, where a breakout with strong volume quickly reverses, trapping traders before establishing a new trend.

Is it #Pumptober again?

Historically, $BTC prices have risen in October for 10 out of the past 12 years. pic.twitter.com/wTXKWKnENT

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 1, 2025

In the short term, professional trader Ezy Bitcoin pointed out the importance of CME futures gaps.

Using the CrossX indicator, he noted that gaps remain below $112K and emphasized that every gap in the past five months has been filled.

“So, if we get a small pullback here, I see it as a solid opportunity to accumulate more before the next big move,” he said.

This view suggests that while a correction may come first, the next upward leg could be far stronger, with Fibonacci projections pointing as high as $155,000.

Is it #Pumptober again?

Historically, $BTC prices have risen in October for 10 out of the past 12 years. pic.twitter.com/wTXKWKnENT

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 1, 2025 Bitcoin “Uptober” Effect Shows Why October’s +29.9% Average Return Still Matters

On the macro and seasonal front, CryptoQuant points to the well-known “Uptober” effect.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that August and September tend to post flat or negative returns (−0.54% and −4.16% on average), while October (+29.9%), November (+37.5%), and December consistently deliver outsized gains.

The MVRV ratio, which tracks how far BTC’s market price has diverged from its average on-chain cost basis, also supports this bullish narrative.

Historically, MVRV hovers near 1.8 most of the year, but climbs above 1.9 in October and approaches 2.0 by December, reflecting stronger demand and investor profitability.

Is it #Pumptober again?

Historically, $BTC prices have risen in October for 10 out of the past 12 years. pic.twitter.com/wTXKWKnENT

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 1, 2025

CryptoQuant describes the current environment as the “calm before the moon,” with consolidation potentially giving way to aggressive upside.

Even if Bitcoin retests the $111K–$112K zone, analysts say it could form the base for a stronger rally into the year-end.

Further supporting this thesis, Lookonchain noted that Bitcoin closed September with a 5.35% gain, which is historically a precursor to bullish Octobers.

Is it #Pumptober again?

Historically, $BTC prices have risen in October for 10 out of the past 12 years. pic.twitter.com/wTXKWKnENT

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 1, 2025

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model places the average recent entry price at $102,900, well below current levels, suggesting the rally has room to extend before traders become overheated.

Glassnode identifies $122,000 as the first “heated zone” where profit-taking could intensify, and $138,000 as the “overheated zone,” a level often associated with cycle peaks.

Elliott Wave Outlines Bitcoin’s Path Toward $125K Before $150K Target

On the technical front, the daily chart reveals an Elliott Wave structure combined with key support and resistance zones following the move above $116K.

The “Important Demand Zone” around $96,000–$98,000 formed the foundation for the current rally, while the “Critical Bullish Support Level” near $106,000 has acted as a defensive line for sustaining momentum.

Is it #Pumptober again?

Historically, $BTC prices have risen in October for 10 out of the past 12 years. pic.twitter.com/wTXKWKnENT

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 1, 2025

The “Strong Supply Zone” between $106,000 and $108,000, once a major source of selling pressure, has also been reclaimed.

Elliott Wave counts suggest Bitcoin has completed waves A, B, and C in a corrective phase, followed by an impulsive five-wave advance.

If this structure holds, BTC could see corrective action in the $120,000–$125,000 range before testing whether sufficient demand exists to extend toward $145,000–$150,000.

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