BTC’s Upwards Trajectory is Unshaken, But Few Altcoins Will Perform Well – Coinbase and Glassnode

Despite potential risks, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to continue rising this year, though the same can’t be said for the vast majority of altcoins, according to the latest Charting Crypto report, a joint publication of Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, reflecting data until 30 June, 2025.

Companies are increasingly investing in crypto for their treasuries, particularly in BTC. This creates “a meaningful new source of demand.”

Leveraged funding of crypto purchases could present risks related to forced or motivated discretionary selling over the medium- to long-term, the report states. However, the analysts argue this shouldn’t be a problem in the short term.

“We’re confident about bitcoin’s upward trajectory even in the face of such risks, but we think only select altcoins may perform well depending on their idiosyncratic circumstances.”

Meanwhile, the analysts noted that major tokens surged from their 2025 lows sooner than expected. Bitcoin hit new all-time highs in May and July. “We think there could be more upside in the quarter ahead,” they said.

There are several factors that have led to this conclusion. The report named increased crypto adoption by corporate treasuries, as well as several US-related factors.

The latter includes beneficial regulatory developments, an optimistic outlook for economic growth, the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the cooling of the tariff-related concerns.

“Going forward, risk sentiment should broadly benefit from the US government’s pivot towards more market-friendly policies,” the report argued.

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Moreover, when it comes to regulations in the US, 2025 policies have become largely crypto-friendly. Notably, just this week, three key pieces of crypto legislation – the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act – passed the House of Representatives.

This “unprecedented shift [is] setting the stage for what could be a transformative period for digital assets.”

Finally, as the quarter began and the US announced the massive global tariffs, risk assets were in retreat, says the report. It adds that “the peak of the macro disruption caused by the tariff saga is now behind us.”

Bitcoin dominance was rising in the second quarter of this year, reaching 64% by 30 June. This is “just shy of its four-year high of 65%,” says the report.

Ethereum’s and Solana’s share of the total crypto market cap also increased in this period, with investor interest in blue-chip tokens rising.

At the time of writing on Friday noon (UTC), Bitcoin dominance stands at 61.7%.

Meanwhile, the report found that Bitcoin’s liquid supply (coins moved within three months) increased 12% in the second quarter. Illiquid supply (coins unmoved in more than a year) fell 2%. The latter suggests that “most long-term BTC owners continued to hold their coins even as prices moved above $100,000.”

Also, the amount of supply in profit recovered from below 75% to nearly 100% in the same period. By quarter end, nearly the entire supply of BTC was in profit.

For ETH, the percentage in profit rose from under 40% to nearly 90% in Q2. ETH liquid supply rose 8% and illiquid supply fell 6%. This suggests that “some long-term holders used market strength as an opportunity to sell to newer entrants.”

Also, at the end of Q1, more than 40 million ETH were in loss, but at the end of Q2, this was less than 10 million.

Meanwhile, going back to BTC, investor sentiment reversed from anxiety to optimism. This happened “as global trade tensions receded and macroeconomic
 data exhibited strength.”

Also, ETH hit the capitulation stage in Q1, but it rallied strongly in Q2, the report added.

Lastly, analysts found that crypto continued showing low or negative correlations with other asset classes. However, BTC’s correlation with US stocks went up from 0.40 to 0.55. Correlations with the broader COIN50 index are unchanged.

That said, in Q2, “Bitcoin has continued to outperform traditional assets on a risk-adjusted basis, as US fiscal developments have helped strengthen the coin’s store-of-value narrative.” Consequently, “institutional investors and corporates increased their allocations to BTC,” the report concludes.

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