Chart of the Day – Bitcoin’s Price Isn’t Overheated, It Might Still Be Cheap

Let’s dig into the Mayer Multiple — a classic but often overlooked metric that compares Bitcoin’s current price to its 200-day moving average. Right now, the Multiple is sitting at 1.1x, well inside the neutral range of 0.8–1.5x. That’s nowhere near “overbought” territory, which starts around 1.5x and above.

Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at CryptoQuant, points out that this relative calm suggests one thing: Bitcoin is still undervalued compared to previous bull market tops. “Today’s Mayer Multiple indicates that Bitcoin is trading at a discount to its historical bull rallies,” Adler wrote on X. “It’s more undervalued than overvalued, a good fuel reserve for a new upward impulse.”

Mayer Multiple shows Bitcoin not overheated, source: X

Translation: If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for the top to blow off, you might want to reconsider. Historically, major BTC tops have come when the Multiple screams “overheated.” Right now, it’s whispering “room to run.” That means now is the time to buy Bitcoin, and buy crypto. If you want to take part in this Bitcoin and crypto bull run, you have to take action and buy to participate.

To be clear, the Mayer Multiple isn’t some magic buy/sell signal. It’s more of a market mood ring — but when paired with other indicators, it paints a compelling picture: this rally might not be done yet.

Bitcoin’s current cycle looks eerily like past ones. Based on previous halving-to-peak timelines (usually around 152 weeks), top could be just 2 to 3 months away.

Analyst CryptoCon said on X, “the Bitcoin cycle top will be in October this year. We’ve got about 21 weeks or 5 months until we get there. How are we shaping up so far? Other cycles had already completed their First Cycle Top by this time and were preparing for the final run. Some people are under the impression that the cycle can extend into 2026 (year of the bear market) because of the slower price action. Most data seems to favor that the cycle will be complete by the end of this year.”

The Bitcoin price prediction cycle top could peak in October 2025, Source: X

Here’s the contrarian angle: maybe this cycle doesn’t blow off at all. Maybe the days of parabolic tops and brutal drawdowns are behind us, replaced by slower, more institutional price discovery. Bitcoin doesn’t have to repeat the past to make history. And with ETFs, sovereign accumulation, and Layer 2 activity picking up, there’s a chance this market looks more like the S&P 500 on stimulants than the wild casino of 2017.

Still, the dream of a vertical moonshot this October lives on.

For now, the Mayer Multiple gives us one clear message: don’t let the high price fool you, BTC might still be cheap. Now might be the best time to buy Bitcoin and crypto from a risk-reward perspective.