Did the McRib Predict Bitcoin’s Surge to 100K?

The concept emerged when Nick Maggiulli, COO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, observed that between 2010 and 2023, the S&P 500 experienced an average daily return of 0.1% during periods when the McRib was available, compared to 0.04% when it wasn’t. This led to playful speculation about the sandwich’s influence on market performance.

Extending this lighthearted analysis to the crypto realm, some enthusiasts noted that Bitcoin’s price has occasionally risen during the McRib’s promotional periods. For instance, in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin saw gains exceeding 200% within 90 days of the McRib’s reintroduction. 

Source: X

While these observations are amusing, they underscore a critical analytical principle: correlation does not imply causation. The McRib’s return typically coincides with the year’s end—a period often associated with favorable market conditions due to factors like the “Santa Claus Rally.” Therefore, attributing market movements to the availability of a sandwich overlooks the myriad influences at play.

The crypto community, known for its embrace of memes, finds such correlations entertaining. The McRib-Bitcoin connection serves as a humorous reminder of the human tendency to seek patterns, even where none exist. As Ben Lilly of Jarvis Labs remarked, focusing on such tenuous links might stem from market boredom, leading analysts to grasp at straws for explanations.