Fidelity Macro Analyst: Long-Term Bitcoin Forecast

It’s been revealed that an important analyst from Fidelity is addressing a long-term Bitcoin forecast. Check out the latest reports below.

Fidelity’s director of global macro Jurrien Timmer is updating his long-term forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC). This is happening while the king coin struggles near the $30,000 mark.

In a lengthy thread, Timmer addressed the quant analyst PlanB’s once-popular stock-to-flow model (S2F). Just to refresh your memory, this model attempted to predict the price of Bitcoin based on supply shocks stemming from BTC halvings.

Timmer revealed an S2F-inspired supply model, plus two more models that track the adoption rates of the internet and mobile phones.

According to Timmer’s modified supply model, Bitcoin could be somewhere around $63,778 by 2025 – this is about a year after the next BTC halving.

“The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle.”

Timmer said that based on the adoption of mobile phones, Bitcoin could explode in value and trade at $144,753 by 2025.

He also made sure to say that if Bitcoin follows the adoption rate of the internet, Timmer’s model would suggest the fact that BTC has topped out and could trade at $47,702 in three years.

“Assuming the mobile phone curve is a more viable analog, its curve suggests a strongly growing network for Bitcoin in the years ahead, but the more asymptotic internet curve raises the possibility that perhaps Bitcoin’s growth curve is more mature than my models have assumed…”

He continued and explained the following:

“I remain bullish on Bitcoin as an aspiring store of value in a world of ongoing financial repression, but the above exercise is a good reminder that we should always revisit our assumptions, especially when the price action deviates from expectations.”

Stay tuned for more news.