FTX Payouts Begin Today, Will Bitcoin Price Rally Or Crash In Response?

The long-awaited FTX creditor payouts are set to begin today, February 18 after over two years of bankruptcy. This payment, which is the first batch, is targeted towards targeting smaller creditors. Nonetheless, the payout could have a few effects on the crypto industry, especially if creditors receive payouts in crypto.

A crypto analyst, Excavo, has shared his perspective on TradingView, highlighting the potential liquidity shifts that could follow FTX’s creditor payouts and the broader implications for Bitcoin and altcoins.

FTX has confirmed that creditor repayments will commence on February 18, starting with those in the convenience class category of creditors with claims of $50,000 or less. These creditors will receive full repayment plus an additional 9% annual interest accrued since November 2022, totaling approximately $1.2 billion in payouts. 

For creditors with larger claims exceeding $50,000, distributions will begin in Q2 2025, with FTX planning to disburse $7 billion as part of a larger $16 billion payout in total. As noted by Excavo, the significance of these payouts extends beyond individual investors, as the redistribution of these funds could reshape liquidity flows across the crypto market.

If creditors receive payouts in crypto and decide to sell, it could create downward pressure on the market. However, most repayments are expected in cash, and it is now left to see how investors will reinvest them into the market. The first thought is that most of these repayments will go back into Bitcoin, which would trigger a Bitcoin price rally.

However, with billions set to enter the market, a significant portion could flow into altcoins, especially if Ethereum staking ETFs receive regulatory approval later in 2025. This aligns with speculation that an altcoin ETF wave could drive capital into other altcoins like Cardano, Dogecoin, XRP, and most especially Solana. Excavo’s analysis noted that the lack of liquidity rotation into altcoins has left many underappreciated, but this could change if a substantial portion of FTX repayments is redirected into the broader crypto market and not Bitcoin.

The total FTX repayment to creditors is expected to be in excess of $16 billion, with most being cash repayments. The injection of billions of dollars could cause fresh buying pressure if reinvested into the market. You could argue that this is the general consensus among bullish investors.

For example, some members of the Reddit crypto community have noted that they are eager to reinvest their FTX payouts into the crypto industry.  “It’s all getting degen’d straight back into crypto,” one Reddit user commented. 

With Bitcoin at the forefront of recent inflows into the market, the majority of the payout could as well easily go back into Bitcoin. Crypto analyst Excavo thinks otherwise, noting that most of the FTX repayments flowing back in will go into the altcoin market. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $95,300, down by 0.75% in the past 24 hours.