Is $105,000 The Bitcoin Bull Run Killer Or Just Noise? Top Analyst Explains

The question reverberating across —whether a decisive break below $105,000 would end the Bitcoin bull cycle—drew a crisp rebuttal from popular market analyst CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto). In a pair of late-night posts to his 476,000 followers, he argued that while $105,000 is a key threshold for the “most aggressive” upside path, a loss of that level would not, by itself, terminate the higher-time-frame uptrend.

“No, if $105,000 is lost it’s not ‘over’ it just means the most aggressive/bullish scenario is out of play and a deeper correction is a lot more likely,” he wrote. “HTF structure isn’t broken until/unless $74,000 is lost—all explained in my last Youtube vid so before you ask ‘why so low for HTF invalidation’ go watch the vid :).”

In a second post he reiterated the pivot that has framed his outlook for weeks: “$107-$110,000 has always been the MOST pivotal point on the BTC chart… This is the most likely zone for a full on reversal—it doesn’t mean it is guaranteed of course but this is the last place it makes sense to start flipping bearish.”

The posts point back to a YouTube video published two weeks ago, where the analyst maps three paths for Bitcoin’s next leg. Two envision an upside reversal in or just below the current $107,000–$110,000 area, while a third allows for a deeper corrective sweep without violating the secular uptrend.

He is explicit that trend invalidation for the cycle sits much lower—he cites the “mid-$70,000s” as the line in the sand, and, in one passage, places formal invalidation at $74,000–$75,000—because that’s where the prior high-time-frame impulse originated and where the market would, in Elliott-wave terms, erase the larger five-wave structure. That framing is why losing $105,000 would mark a deterioration in momentum rather than a terminal break in structure.

Inside his framework, “Scenario 1”—the idea that price is still working through a compact fourth-wave pause inside an already active impulse—has, by his own admission, grown unlikely. The corrective chop has lasted too long and retraced too deep relative to its second-wave analogue; by classical proportionality, that makes it the wrong degree for a fourth wave. The technical red line for that scenario was $110,000; once reclaimed and then overrun to the downside during the correction, the count’s symmetry broke down.

“Scenario 2,” his preferred bullish configuration, casts the rally off roughly $105,000 as the first completed five-wave impulse of a new advance. In this reading, the market is currently tracing a wave-two pullback with invalidation squarely at $105k.

The implication is arithmetic as much as it is structural: if wave one spanned approximately $20,000 top to bottom, a standard third wave would be larger, pushing toward at least the mid-$130,000s before a fourth-wave pause and a terminal fifth carry the move into the $150,000-plus region. This is why he characterizes $107,000–110,000 as “the best R:R for longs,” the last high-probability staging area for a reversal before invalidation.

“Scenario 3” keeps the broader May-to-present correction intact. Here the pop above range highs was corrective rather than impulsive—what technicians call a three-leg rise with overlap—and the market still owes a deeper sweep into demand.

He differentiates two shapes: a running flat that defends the June/July lows and finds support in a purple band between ~$103,000 and ~$98,000, and an expanded flat that undercuts those lows and tests the daily demand block that “started at basically 98k,” which price “front-ran… at 98.2k” before bouncing. In both cases the higher-time-frame thesis is unchanged, because the structural invalidation remains far below at $74k–$75k.

At press time, BTC traded around $110,019 after hitting an intraday low at $108,666.