Is Bitcoin Bull Run Back? Daily RSI Shows Only Mild Bullish Momentum

The price of Bitcoin has been on quite the run since mid-April, finding its way from beneath the $85,000 mark to as high as $104,700 over the past month. The largest cryptocurrency market enjoyed a positive shift in investor sentiment and a fresh influx of capital, especially through the BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Interestingly, the premier cryptocurrency seems to be showing some signs of fatigue, especially after failing to break out of the $102,000 – $105,000 consolidation range over the past week. This sluggish round of price action has called into question the authenticity of the recent bullish impulse.

Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Tony Severino took to the X platform to share an interesting insight into the price action of Bitcoin over the last few weeks. According to the crypto expert, the price of BTC might be missing a classic technical behavior, often correlated with aggressive bullish impulses.

The rationale behind this observation is the recent movement of the daily relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the Bitcoin price chart. The relative strength index is a momentum indicator used in technical price analysis to estimate the speed and magnitude of an asset’s price changes. The RSI oscillator is typically used to analyze whether a crypto asset is being overbought or oversold, signaling a potential trend/price reversal. An RSI reading of above 70 usually indicates an overbought market condition, while a relative strength index value below 30 signals an oversold condition.

According to Severino, Bitcoin bull runs historically coincide with a rapid surge of the RSI oscillator above the 70 threshold, reflecting overwhelming buying pressure in the market. This pattern is noticeable in the chart below, as highlighted during the October 2023 rally and the November 2024 post-election breakout.

However, Bitcoin’s current price action appears more cautious and less convincing. While the market leader has been recovering from its early-year blues, the relative strength index has yet to exhibit the clean upward break (above 70) typical of significant bullish expansions.

Severino did note that the Bitcoin bullish impulse—signaled by the RSI break above 70—could emerge at any moment. If the bullish strength does come, investors could see the price of BTC break out of the current consolidation range and toward its all-time high.

As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $103,676, reflecting no significant price movements in the past 24 hours. The past day’s sluggishness underscores the premier cryptocurrency’s performance in the past week. According to data from CoinGecko, the Bitcoin price has increased by merely 0.8% in the last seven days.