Labor pain, crypto gain — How weak JOLTS data sets path for Bitcoin price to rally

Key points:

• Weak labor and consumer data often precede Bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to anticipate future economic stimulus programs.

• Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March versus the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit its lowest level since January 2021.

• If past patterns hold, Bitcoin could rally by mid-July and possibly reach $140,000 by October 2025.

Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major influence on cryptocurrency prices. Generally, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins perform poorly when investors fear that employment and consumer data are weakening. 

According to a US Labor Department JOLTS report released on April 29, job openings in March approached their lowest levels in four years. US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, below the 7.5 million that economists had forecast. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, reaching its lowest point since January 2021. 

Worsening conditions raise the chances that central banks will introduce economic stimulus measures, making the overall impact on cryptocurrency markets uncertain. Typically, the additional liquidity encourages investment in risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as more capital flows into the economy.

The last time the US experienced a drop in job openings and weakening consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. In the three months that followed, Bitcoin’s price moved between $53,000 and $66,000.

Then, a 60% rally began in mid-October, pushing BTC above $100,000. The final result was positive, but it took more than 105 days for this effect to show in the cryptocurrency market.

Although these conditions may seem worrying at first, weaker labor and consumer sentiment are usually backward-looking. Financial markets and companies base their decisions on expectations for future economic growth, rather than just past data.

Also, improved sentiment among crypto investors tends to come after there is some confirmation of better macroeconomic conditions. This explains why the 105-day lag is not unusual.

Before 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, with declines in both job market data and consumer confidence. The next four months were difficult, as Bitcoin’s price fell 18% to $25,000. It took 115 days for the price to recover to $30,500 by late October. However, the following two months were very positive, with BTC gaining 45% to reach $43,900.

The last time in the past eight years when both the labor market and consumer confidence suffered significantly was between February 2020 and May 2020, right after the implementation of the COVID-19 lockdowns.

This period saw Bitcoin briefly drop below $4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer period of consolidation was expected before investors regained confidence in the crypto markets.

Related: Bitcoin acts like ‘store of value that it is’ amid Trump policy chaos: NYDIG

Looking back at the macroeconomic data, there was no major impact on Bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, as its price increased from $8,900 to $10,600, a 20% gain. However, the next 60 days brought an impressive 85% rally to $19,700. For the third time, weaker labor and consumer sentiment data seemed to come before a rally in Bitcoin prices.

While the time between the lowest point of economic conditions and Bitcoin’s rally ranged from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in all three cases. Therefore, if US job openings and consumer confidence improve from April 2025, it is likely that Bitcoin’s price will start to rise by mid-July. If history repeats itself, this could mean a minimum target of $140,000 by October 2025, but further positive macroeconomic data is needed to confirm this outlook.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.