Matrixport Says 95% Chance Of Bitcoin Spot ETF In January, Sets BTC Price Target

The anticipation around a potential approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF is still high among crypto investors. This anticipation has been one of the main drivers of the price rally that has been witnessed over the last two months.

Despite the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponing its decision on multiple spot ETF filings, industry experts remain very positive that the regulator is on the verge of approving the first Spot Bitcoin ETF.

Many experts have revised their expectations for if and when the SEC would approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF. At first, expectations were low. But as time has gone on, the expectations have risen quickly and analysts at Matrixport are part of the camp that believes a Spot Bitcoin ETF is on its way.

In a report released on Monday, December 18, Matrixport Head of Research Markus Thielen reveals a 95% chance that a Spot BTC ETF will be approved in January 2024. January carries the deadline dates for most of the 13 filings so far, and Thielen expects that the SEC will approve a spot ETF on January 10.

The report points to the fact that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, reviewed its S-1 filing with the SEC. Here, the regulator had given the asset manager instructions which included monitoring unusual price movements, storing all private keys in cold storage, and having procedures in the event there are Bitcoin forks.

Additionally, the SEC also responded to Franklin-Templeton’s filing in November despite having until January to do so. This move, the analyst says, “gave the impression that the SEC is lining all issuers up to get approval by January 10, 2024.”

Thielen explains the importance of the meeting the regulator had with BlackRock, saying,  “The SEC has never actively engaged with potential ETF issues and appears to have given all ETF issuers with whom it had discussions the same instructions.”

Given that Matrixport expects approvals to come in January, the analyst also gave their expectation for price when this happens. Thielen expects that Bitcoin will go on another rally once this happens and the price could rise as high as $50,000 in the first quarter of the year 2024 as a result.

“We expect this correction to switch back into another leg higher in Bitcoin prices after Christmas as investors take advantage of the recent correction and position themselves for the likely Bitcoin Spot ETF approval period – January 8 to January 10, 2024,” the analyst said, alluding to the decline in price that Bitcoin has recorded over the last week.

As for Grayscale, the analyst doesn’t believe that the SEC would allow for a conversion of the Bitcoin trust into a Spot ETF on January 10. However, they do expect 20% of precious metal demand to switch to Spot Bitcoin ETFs following the approvals.