Not $60,000: Analyst Reveals The Best Time To Actually Start Buying Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s crash over the weekend has brought the $60,000 level back into the market conversation, but crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader believes the real opportunity may come at a lower price. Technical analysis comparing the current Bitcoin structure with the 2022 Wyckoff accumulation phase shows that buying the current bounce would be a costly mistake because the real accumulation window has not even opened yet.

To understand where Merlijn The Trader believes Bitcoin is headed, it helps to understand where it has been. Merlijn’s analysis is built around the Wyckoff accumulation model, using Bitcoin’s 2022 bottoming structure as the reference point. 

Back in that cycle, Bitcoin formed a spring around $15,500, recovered into the $23,000 region, where eager buyers rushed in, believing the worst was over. However, it was not. The price action then delivered a secondary wave of selling that crushed late buyers before the genuine markup phase began.

The analyst believes the 2026 structure is developing in a similar way. His chart shows Bitcoin currently trading around the same stage where the market previously moved through a sign of strength, lost momentum, and later dropped into the spring phase. The important message is that any bounce from the current region may not be the point where traders should become aggressive on their buying.

Another important message from the analysis is that the $60,000 level may be misleading. Bitcoin fell below that level during the recent selloff, and it is important as a support because it is close to the 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On X

The Wyckoff setup by Merlijn identifies five phases: Phase A stops the downtrend via a selling climax, Phase B builds the cause as institutions accumulate within the range, Phase C delivers the spring, which is a final shakeout below support, Phase D marks up within the range with a last point of support and a sign of strength, and Phase E is the breakout and uptrend. 

Merlijn’s chart places Bitcoin inside this structure in 2026, with the Spring phase still ahead. The analyst’s projection is that a Spring to $50,000 is incoming, followed by a bounce rally to the $65,000-$70,000 range. That bounce, he warns, will once again lure in bulls who will buy into what appears to be a recovery, the same trap that caught investors in 2023.

Merlijn places Bitcoin’s dollar-cost averaging zone between $48,000 and $59,000. This range is the part of the chart where he expects the better long-term entries to appear. Therefore patience is required, and the conclusion is that the best time to begin buying Bitcoin may come when fear is strongest inside the $48,000 to $59,000 range, not when it produces its first bounce back above $70,000. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,891.