S&P 500 briefly sees ‘Bitcoin-level’ volatility amid Trump tariff war

The S&P 500 Index briefly experienced Bitcoin-level volatility in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, underscoring the panic and fear gripping traditional markets amid the ongoing trade war. 

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas alerted his followers on X that the S&P 500’s volatility, as measured by the “SPY US Equity Hist Vol” chart, reached 74 in early April, exceeding Bitcoin’s (BTC) 71 level. 

Source: Eric Balchunas

The increase marks a significant deviation from the S&P 500’s long-term volatility average, which is below 20. 

For Bitcoin though, extreme volatility has been a feature since the asset’s inception. 

“Bitcoin’s volatility remains elevated at 3.9 and 4.6 times that of gold and global equities, respectively,” according to BlackRock. 

While Bitcoin’s average volatility has declined over time, it tends to experience much higher price swings than more established assets. Source: BlackRock

Stocks are experiencing crisis-level volatility due to Trump’s trade war, which threatened duties of anywhere from 10% to 50% on imports from America’s largest trading partners. While Trump has since paused some of his tariffs for 90 days, the administration has ratcheted up duties on Chinese imports to at least 145%. 

The volatility has also extended into other assets, most notably US Treasurys, which experienced a large sell-off this week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is on track for its steepest rise since 2001.

Related: As Trump tanks Bitcoin, PMI offers a roadmap of what comes next

US equity markets experienced a historic relief rally on April 9 after Trump’s tariff pause. However, the “macro relief” didn’t extend to Bitcoin or its spot exchange traded funds (ETFs) in any meaningful way, which is a sign that “institutional confidence remains cautious in the near term,” Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph in a note. 

“After January’s record inflows, ETF demand has cooled, with several products seeing net outflows in recent weeks,” the analysts said. “This reflects hesitation among large allocators who may be waiting for more favorable entry points or clearer regulatory guidance.” 

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced six consecutive days of outflows. Source: Farside

Despite Bitcoin’s disappointing performance, Bitfinex said the second quarter through the end of 2025 is potentially bullish for the asset class as a whole as “new narratives take hold,” such as sovereign accumulation and growth in real-world asset tokenization.

Unchained’s director of market research, Joe Burnett, shared a similar view, arguing that Bitcoin has more attractive characteristics for long-term investors who are worried about government policy and fiat risk impacting their portfolios. 

While the S&P 500’s volatility spike is likely to be short-lived, Burnett said its recent performance “challenges the long-held belief that traditional markets are safer, less risky, or more stable.” 

Related: Weaker yuan is 'bullish for BTC' as Chinese capital flocks to crypto — Bybit CEO