Stars align for Bitcoin rally to $100K, but futures traders exercise caution — Here’s why

Key takeaways:

• BTC hit $97,900 due to soaring institutional investor demand, but futures pricing shows traders aren't confident in a sustained rally.

• Macroeconomic risks and global trade tensions cap bullish sentiment despite $3.6 billion in spot BTC ETF inflows.

• BTC options lean bullish, suggesting big players expect upside, but their caution keeps leverage use low.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of a tight trading range between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1, following six days of limited movement. Despite reaching its highest price in ten weeks at $97,930, sentiment remains neutral according to BTC derivatives indicators. This price action has occurred alongside significant net inflows into US spot exchange-traded Bitcoin funds (ETFs).

Some of the disappointment among traders can be attributed to the ongoing global tariff dispute, which is beginning to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin traders are concerned that, despite growing interest from institutional investors, fears of an economic recession could limit price performance. This concern reduces the likelihood of BTC reaching $110,000 or higher in 2025.

The annualized premium for Bitcoin’s two-month futures has remained between 6% and 7% over the past week, staying within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000 and the futures premium was above 10%, traders’ sentiment has weakened. This data suggests there is less optimism, or at least less conviction, in further price gains toward $100,000 and above.

Some market participants point to gold’s 20% rally, from $2,680 to $3,220, as a source of concern. Although Bitcoin recently surpassed silver’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization to become the seventh largest global tradable asset, gold’s surge to a massive $21.7 trillion valuation has overshadowed this achievement. Investors worry that Bitcoin’s strong correlation with the stock market has diminished the appeal of its “digital gold” narrative.

There is also a possibility that the $3.6 billion in net inflows to US spot ETFs over the past two weeks are being driven by delta-neutral strategies. In this scenario, the flows reflect Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on price would be limited, which is consistent with Bitcoin’s modest 5% gain during this period.

To determine whether professional traders are comfortable with Bitcoin around $97,500, it is helpful to examine the BTC options market.

The BTC options 25% delta skew metric is currently near its lowest level since Feb. 15, indicating that whales and market makers are assigning higher odds to further upside from here. This marks a sharp reversal from three weeks ago, when put (sell) options traded at a premium.

Related: Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further price gains, but bulls are refraining from using leverage. Some might argue that this creates the ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially since the retest of $74,500 on April 9 did not significantly affect BTC derivatives.

The most important factor influencing Bitcoin’s performance remains the commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue tracking the S&P 500 movements. While this environment may prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near term, BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly in favor of the bulls.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.