The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over: Here’s Where We Are In The Cycle

Bitcoin is once again at the center of a fierce debate. While many market participants have interpreted recent weakness as the beginning of a new bear market, crypto trader @CryptoFergani argues the opposite. According to his assessment, the market has already endured its bearish phase, and current conditions point to a different stage of the cycle altogether. 

To understand his argument, it is important to look beyond daily price swings and focus on the larger structure of the market. @CryptoFergani’s chart presents Bitcoin moving within a long-term ascending channel that has guided price action across multiple cycles. Historically, the lower boundaries of this channel have acted as accumulation zones, while the upper boundaries have marked periods of optimism and cycle peaks.

The chart highlights several occasions where Bitcoin touched the lower sections of the channel before beginning substantial recoveries. In previous cycles, those moments coincided with widespread pessimism before being followed by powerful advances. The current position on the chart places Bitcoin near a similar region, leading the analyst to conclude that the market is emerging from a prolonged corrective period rather than entering a fresh bear market.

Market psychology is central to this thesis. Many investors following the traditional four-year cycle have recently reduced exposure or exited positions. With fewer potential sellers, downward pressure weakens, and even small increases in demand can significantly move the price.

This is why the analyst interprets recent weakness as exhaustion rather than collapse, suggesting the market is resetting ahead of another expansion phase.

If the bear market is indeed over, the next question becomes where Bitcoin currently sits in the cycle. The answer, according to the analyst’s framework, is somewhere between accumulation and acceleration.

Several factors support this view. Institutional participation in digital assets continues to expand, regulatory discussions in the United States are gaining importance, and expectations of future economic stimulus remain part of the broader outlook. @CryptoFergani also highlights business cycle shifts, US dollar movements, Federal Reserve policy changes, and commodity trends as parts of a larger setup that could favor risk assets.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s short-term performance remains mixed. It is currently trading around $67,176 after a 4.3% decline over 24 hours. From @CryptoFergani’s perspective, these pullbacks are not a new bear market but turbulence within a broader transition. His long-term projection still anticipates a sharp upside move after the current consolidation, with a potential rise from the $60,000–$80,000 range to $320,000–$340,000 later in the cycle, provided Bitcoin stays within its long-term ascending channel.

Whether that forecast ultimately materializes remains to be seen. However, the central message is clear: while much of the market is focused on recent declines, some analysts believe Bitcoin is no longer fighting a bear market at all. Instead, it may be laying the groundwork for the next major stage of the cycle.