Trump Adviser Bailey Sees No Bitcoin Bear Market for Years Even as Price Hits August Bottom

Bitcoin CEO and Trump crypto policy adviser David Bailey declared there will be no Bitcoin bear market for several years, citing massive institutional adoption even as Bitcoin trades near its August bottom of $112,000.

Bailey argued that sovereigns, banks, insurers, corporates, and pension funds will drive continuous buying pressure, claiming the market hasn’t captured even 0.01% of the total addressable market.

The bold prediction comes as Bitcoin struggles with price momentum despite reaching a new all-time high of $124,000 on August 13.

The crypto currently trades around $112,000, representing a 10% decline from its peak and marking what analysts consider a concerning August bottom amid broader altcoin strength.

There’s not going to be another Bitcoin bear market for several years.

Every Sovereign, Bank, Insurer, Corporate, Pension, and more will own Bitcoin. The process has already begun in earnest, yet we haven’t even captured 0.01% of the TAM.

We’re going so much higher. Dream big

Bailey’s comments sparked debate among crypto veterans, with some questioning why Bitcoin declined during a raging bull equity market if institutional demand remains so robust.

Critics noted that Bitcoin treasury companies face mounting pressure, with nearly a quarter trading below net asset value as market conditions tighten.

Bailey defended Bitcoin’s recent weakness by attributing price pressure to futures and options manipulation rather than fundamental demand shifts.

He maintained that growing institutional adoption represents the first genuine institutional buy-in Bitcoin has experienced, distinguishing current conditions from previous cycles driven primarily by retail speculation.

Corporate Bitcoin holdings have exploded to over $215 billion, with close to 300 entities, with public companies controlling 71.4% of total institutional reserves.

MicroStrategy leads with over 629K BTC, followed by MARA Holdings at over 50K BTC.

However, new research from Sentora warns that this corporate Bitcoin experiment faces structural risks during credit cycle downturns.

The study characterizes most strategies as “negative-carry trades” where companies borrow fiat to acquire non-yielding assets, creating dangerous dependencies on continued Bitcoin appreciation.

Mining companies face particular vulnerability with razor-thin margins, often becoming structurally unprofitable below $100,000 Bitcoin prices.

Marathon Digital and similar firms maintain Bitcoin exposure representing 50-80% of their total assets, creating high liquidation risks during market downturns.

Investment firm VanEck has recently reaffirmed its $180,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite recent volatility, with CME basis funding rates surging to 9% – the highest level since February 2025.

The firm’s research indicates institutional demand remains robust, with exchange-traded products purchasing 54,000 BTC and Digital Asset Treasuries adding 72,000 BTC in July alone.

VanEck maintains $180K Bitcoin forecast as CME basis rates hit 9% peak driven by institutional demand.#Bitcoin #BullRunhttps://t.co/ZsXmtpIvbU

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also predicted Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. Armstrong cited regulatory clarity and institutional adoption as key drivers for the ambitious target, noting many large funds currently hold about 1% Bitcoin allocations with room for significant expansion.

Similarly, Copper’s head of research, Fadi Aboualfa, suggested Bitcoin appears “primed for another significant leg upward” but cautioned that institutional-driven markets may follow a “more tempered path” compared to previous retail-fueled cycles.

Aboualfa projected Bitcoin could breach $140,000 in September and reach $150,000 by early October.

However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz provided a contrarian perspective, warning that million-dollar Bitcoin predictions would likely reflect U.S. economic collapse rather than crypto success.

Novogratz argued he would prefer lower Bitcoin prices in a stable economy over extreme valuations driven by a currency crisis.

Bailey’s no-bear-market thesis contradicts Glassnode analysis, suggesting Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycles remain structurally intact despite institutional integration.

The blockchain analytics firm found that current cycle duration and long-term holder profit-taking levels closely mirror previous patterns.

Glassnode data indicates Bitcoin’s current cycle has maintained supply above profitable levels for 273 days, making it the second-longest duration on record behind the 2015-2018 cycle’s 335 days.

Capital inflows weakened despite new all-time highs, with realized cap increases reaching only 6% monthly compared to 13% during the initial $100,000 breakout.

Derivatives markets continue exhibiting elevated risk appetite characteristic of mature bull phases, with Bitcoin futures open interest maintaining $67 billion levels.

Ethereum’s derivatives dominance also reached critical levels, with perpetual futures volume hitting an all-time high of 67% versus Bitcoin markets.

The altcoin surge contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s August weakness. Ethereum reached a historic all-time high of around $5,000 with projections toward $6,900, while BNB hit new peaks near $900, driven by ecosystem developments and token burning mechanics.

Notably, early Bitcoin whales have begun rotating assets, with one holder moving 400 BTC worth $45.5 million into leveraged Ethereum positions, and another sold 24,000 BTC just a few hours ago.

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