Why Bitcoin Is Not At Risk Of Knocking $10,000 If Grayscale Increases Selling Pressure

The crypto market has seen extreme selling pressure over the past week, with Bitcoin recording a fresh yearly low below its current levels. The number one crypto by market cap is entangled in the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and its subsequent fallout. 

As of this writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $16,650. In the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency records sideways price action with a 5% in the previous week. Other cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by the market are following a similar trajectory and are trending to the downside. 

In the collapse of FTX, many companies have had to declare bankruptcy. Contagion is spreading across the nascent industry, which might affect major players, including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), run by Digital Currency Group (DGC). 

The FTX fallout impacted one of DGC’s subsidiaries, crypto lender Genesis. Yesterday, this company halted new withdrawal requests from its customers, citing a liquidity crunch triggered by FTX’s downfall. The company stated: 

The default of 3AC negatively impacted the liquidity and duration profiles of our lending entity Genesis Global Capital. Since then, we have been de-risking the book and shoring up our liquidity profile and the quality of our collateral (…). FTX has created unprecedented market turmoil, resulting in abnormal withdrawal requests which have exceeded our current liquidity.

Genesis’ parent company DCG claims it was unaffected by recent events. However, there are speculations about a possible capitulation event within the investment firm and its other subsidiaries, including the GBTC. 

One of the largest Bitcoin holders in the world with over 600,000 BTC valued at over $13 billion and 3 million ETH valued at $3.7 billion, if Grayscale or DCG become forced sellers, the crypto market will likely see fresh lows. According to the rumors shared by a member of the crypto community: 

We’re hearing semi-credible rumors that Genesis may be having solvency issues (…). We are aware that Grayscale controls GBTC and ETHE, not Genesis. DCG (the parent company of Genesis and Grayscale) is backstopping Genesis, and dissolving the trusts may be necessary if there is a solvency issue, and if it is big enough.

A separate report from the trading desk QCP Capital claims Grayscale is unlikely to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings. The firm operates under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supervision. 

QCP Capital believes the SEC is unlikely to authorize a “one-off redemption for Genesis to meet liquidity needs.” The firm noted: 

With all of the SEC’s opposition to GBTC this year, we certainly don’t expect this to happen anytime soon. On the bright side this also means a low chance of a large one-off BTC selling pressure from this.