Why Bitcoin Price Failed To Break $123,000 In The Past Week — Analyst Explains

The crypto market was a story of two distinct halves, one of which saw the Bitcoin price soar to multiple all-time highs. After reaching its all-time high of around $122,800, the premier cryptocurrency has succumbed to a sobering wave of bearish pressure in the past few days.

This recent wave of downward pressure was precipitated by the movement of a Satoshi-era whale on Thursday, July 17. However, the Bitcoin price never seemed likely to cross the $123,000 level, and a prominent on-chain expert on X has explained why.

In a recent post on the social media platform X, Alphractal CEO & founder Joao Wedson explained why the price of BTC failed to break the $123,000 level during its rally to a new all-time high in the past week. According to the crypto expert, this seeming loss of momentum could spell danger for the market leader in the short term.

The rationale behind this prediction is that the $123,000 region (or more precisely, $123,370) is the second Alpha Price level for the Bitcoin price. For context, the Alpha Price is a powerful on-chain indicator that uses several key metrics to estimate where the BTC price is likely to find support or resistance.

In essence, the Alpha Price is a level that the price of Bitcoin needs to breach and stay above to enter the next significant phase of the bull cycle. “It begins by calculating the market’s age in days and uses that to derive the average market cap—essentially the historical valuation baseline,” Wedson added about the indicator.

As shown in the chart above, the Alpha Price indicator has multiple threshold levels, which behave like pressure regions. These thresholds reflect zones where investor sentiment is likely to shift; lower levels act as supports because investors often buy to defend their positions, while upper levels signal increased selling pressure due to profit taking.

Wedson noted that the Bitcoin price failing to breach the second Alpha Price level doesn’t imply that the market top is in. However, the $123,370 region is a clear resistance zone, and the BTC price might need to face some pullback before climbing to new highs.

Wedson also mentioned that the Alpha Price level will update on Saturday, July 19, as it’s dynamically adjusted based on real-time on-chain transaction flows. Nevertheless, if the Bitcoin price does break this level, a move to above $143,000 could still be on the cards.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $117,610, reflecting an over 2% decline in the past 24 hours.