Why Is Bitcoin Up Today? Key Reasons Explained

Bitcoin pushed sharply higher in early European trade on Monday, November 10, 2025, briefly reclaiming the $106,000 handle after a volatile weekend. The move arrives as a cluster of macro-liquidity signals and policy headlines flips risk appetite at the margins.

Under the surface, traders point to three interlocking drivers: an abrupt shift in Federal Reserve balance-sheet guidance, rising odds that Washington’s shutdown saga could be resolved imminently with a subsequent Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown, and a fresh wave of policy chatter—from 50-year mortgages to potential relief checks—that revives the “liquidity impulse” debate.

The most concrete development is the Fed’s communication pivot on reserves and the balance sheet. New York Fed President John Williams signaled last week that, with reserves sliding from “abundant” toward merely “ample,” the central bank may soon need to resume asset purchases—not for stimulus, but to maintain smooth money-market functioning as the Fed halts quantitative tightening on December 1 and begins fully reinvesting maturing Treasuries.

“The Fed may soon need to expand the balance sheet for liquidity needs,” Williams said, emphasizing any buying would be technical rather than a new QE program. QT will stop on December 1 and officials are preparing for balance-sheet growth as needed to stabilize reserves.

Washington politics, paradoxically, is the other tailwind. Prediction markets now handicap material odds that the record-long US government shutdown will be resolved in mid-November. Polymarket shows odds for 87% for a resolution between November 12–15 range.

Why does that matter for Bitcoin? Because when a shutdown ends, Treasury spending typically picks up and, all else equal, cash flows out of the TGA at the Fed into the banking system, raising bank reserves. That mechanical linkage—TGA down, reserves up—has been well documented. A reserve boost, especially with the Fed no longer draining liquidity via QT, is the kind of macro backdrop that has historically coincided with stronger crypto bid.

Into that mix, fresh policy chatter is stoking “liquidity imagination.” Over the weekend, President Trump and FHFA leadership floated the idea of permitting 50-year mortgages, a change that, if implemented through the government-sponsored enterprises, would materially reshape US housing finance duration and lower monthly payments at the cost of higher lifetime interest.

On X, the liquidity narrative is being distilled—loudly—into punchy memes and historical analogies. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) summed up the day’s bull case: “Bullish weekly close. 90% chance US shutdown ends this week (Polymarket). Fed dropping rates 1% over 18 months. Fed confirmed plan to grow balance sheet! Equities Fear & Greed in extreme Fear! Put/Call ratio bullish. Send Bitcoin back up.”

James Lavish (@jameslavish) pushed the fiscal angle: “Trump is floating $2K stimmy checks, the FHFA is considering 50-year mortgages, and the US government continues to run $2 trillion deficits. Please tell me again how the era of easy liquidity and asset inflation is ending.”

Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, the co-founders of the blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode(@Negentropic_) tied it back to the TGA: “Deal for gov shutdown on the horizon. This will give the Treasury a green light to start draining the TGA. This is a major ingredient for the final up leg to play out.” Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) added a retail-flow callback: “Welcome back, helicopter money… had you invested your $1,200 stimulus check in Bitcoin, it’d now be worth $18,607. Don’t mess this up.”

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,265.