American Indian tribes want Kalshi and Polymarket off their land

A coalition of American Indian tribes is seeking to block prediction market Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from undermining gaming laws on Indian land.

The legal challenge is made up of a series of amicus briefs filed this month by the “Tribal Amici,” a legal body consisting of 30 federally recognized Indian tribes and 11 different Indian regulatory agencies. 

In an Amicus Brief — a brief that allows a third party outside the legal proceedings to offer their perspective on an ongoing case — filed on June 11, the Tribal Amici encouraged a court to deny Kalshi’s motion for preliminary injunction.

Meanwhile, a June 15 filing supported the State of New York’s opposition to the CFTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction.

In both cases, the tribal coalition claims that Kalshi and the CFTC’s actions would amount “to a sub silentio reversal of congressional policy and Supreme Court precedent” and “undermine existing tribal-state gaming compacts and regulatory frameworks.”

It argues the legal action would “allow prediction markets to offer sports-betting contracts subject to their own private regulation — not state or tribal regulation — on state and tribal lands; permit prediction markets to divert gaming revenues away from tribal and state governments; and diminish tribal self-determination.”

As such, tribes are seeking to maintain the freedom to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and the recently CFTC-approved Novig, when operating within American Indian jurisdictions.

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They also want to protect “vital” revenue that prediction markets are allegedly siphoning away, and which it’s claimed should be going to government services, tribal programs, and economic development aiding self-governance and self-sufficiency.

The Ohio federal court ruled against Kalshi’s 2025 lawsuit in March this year, stating that its sports event contracts aren’t “swaps.”

Kalshi is appealing this outcome and Ohio’s decision to reject the prediction market’s request for a preliminary injunction. 

Meanwhile, the CFTC sued the State of New York in April this year, claiming it infringed on its area of jurisdiction when it sued Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan over alleged gambling promotion.

The Tribal Amici claims that the CFTC would undermine legal agreements between the New York tribes and the state that are approved by the United States and “carefully balance both tribal and state interests over the regulation of tribal gaming in New York.”

Prediction markets are wrangling with state lawmakers across America. This week, Polymarket joined Kalshi in filing a lawsuit against the state of Minnesota and its prediction market ban that comes into effect in August. 

The CFTC is also considering classifying contracts involving terrorism, assassinations, war, gaming, or illegal activity as illegal and against the public interest.

All of this is happening while prediction markets are processing billions of dollars worth of funds on the back of sports contracts during the World Cup. 

Bloomberg reports that Kalshi has already processed $5.1 billion in notional trading volume during the World Cup, while crypto analysts claim Polymarket attracted $1.6 billion in a single week.

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