CEX Spot Volumes Drop to 2020 Lows as Market Shifts into HODL Mode: CryptoQuant Analyst

Spot trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEX) has dropped to levels last seen in Oct. 2020, according to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr on Monday.

The sharp decline reflects a broader market shift, with fewer coins being sold or moved on-chain as crypto investors choose to hold their assets rather than actively trade.

The slowdown in activity follows a volatile week marked by macroeconomic uncertainty and high-profile social media moments. Bitcoin remained largely range-bound until midweek, when volatility spiked following a fallout between Elon Musk and Donald Trump that caught the market’s attention.

The average spot trading volume on CEXs has dropped to October 2020 levels. Coins are not being sold on spot or moved on-chain – the market has shifted into HODL mode. pic.twitter.com/9bl1PejBVD

The public clash between Donald Trump and Elon Musk injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into the crypto market. Both figures hold outsized influence over investor sentiment, particularly within tech and digital asset circles.

Their dispute unsettled markets, contributing to volatility across asset classes. Tesla shares saw a historic drop, while traders braced for potential shifts in policy direction and regulatory tone.

Sentiment was further shaken ahead of the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. While BTC briefly dropped by 5%, it quickly recovered on the back of stronger-than-expected labor market data.

Despite the rebound, market signals remain cautious. According to Hyblock Capital, orderbook data shows a growing bearish skew.

The bid-ask ratio has turned negative across spot, perpetual futures, and combined exchange platforms, meaning more sellers are placing limit orders near the current price than buyers. Historically, this pattern has preceded local tops and short-term declines in Bitcoin’s price.

A key factor behind the drop in CEX volumes is investor risk aversion. Following years of turbulence, from the collapse of FTX in 2022 to regulatory crackdowns on Binance and Coinbase in 2023, traders have become more cautious.

Many have chosen to move assets off exchanges and into long-term storage.

Adding to the shift is the rise of decentralized exchanges. In May 2025, DEXs claimed a record 25% share of global spot trading volume, up from 20% earlier in the year. The jump reflects both improved wallet usability and growing dissatisfaction with centralized platforms.

Permissionless access and composable trading environments have made DEXs increasingly attractive to more experienced users.

Analysts say this “HODL mode” is unlikely to reverse without a material change in sentiment or stronger market catalysts. Liquidity clusters are now forming around the $107,000 level, while a key support zone remains below, potentially acting as a magnet for price if bearish pressure builds.

For now, low activity and rising caution define the landscape. With volatility simmering just beneath the surface, traders appear more inclined to watch from the sidelines than to chase short-term gains.

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