Coinbase Says Prediction Markets Are Now a $200 Million-a-Year Business Despite a Slow Crypto Quarter

Coinbase’s prediction markets business is now bringing in more than $200 million a year on an annualized basis, while the number of paying Coinbase One members grew 24% year over year to an all-time high, the exchange reported on Oct. 29.

The quarter also opened a wide gap between Coinbase’s two profit measures. Net income was $719 million, while adjusted net income was $78 million. CFO Alesia Haas said during the company’s earnings presentation that net income was “driven largely by unrealized gains on crypto assets that we hold for investment.” Coinbase had posted a net loss of $359.5 million in the second quarter, according to its earnings deck.

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Since launch, the product’s revenue has grown at an 82% compound quarterly rate, Coinbase said in its release. Daily prediction traders rose more than 60% from the second quarter, and Haas said that in Q3 “more than 50% of contracts traded were non-sports.”

CEO Brian Armstrong said during the same presentation that prediction markets are “one of the fastest-growing products by revenue in Coinbase history.” He added that Coinbase received approval from the CFTC to list its own prediction market contracts, a step he said “will improve our economics.”

Coinbase One, the paid tier that removes trading fees, has “grown 5 quarters in a row, even through tough market conditions,” Armstrong said. Coinbase said its subscribers bring in 3.5 times more average revenue per user and keep 4.2 times higher balances than non-subscribers.

“The market backdrop was challenging, but the business is healthy,” Haas said.

A 10% market-wide drop in crypto trading volume barely moved Coinbase’s top line, which held at $1.2 billion. Its share of crypto trading volume has now risen for four quarters running, to 10.7%. Adjusted EBITDA came to $333 million, 60% above Q2 and positive for a 15th consecutive quarter, and management lowered its 2026 adjusted expense forecast, to $4.15 billion–$4.3 billion.

Revenue from subscriptions and services, which includes stablecoin income, staking rewards and lending, came to $570 million, 3% more than in Q2 and 49% of net revenue. USDC balances in Coinbase products averaged a record $22 billion.

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