dYdX To Unlock $478M Worth Of Tokens, Will Bears Have A Field Day?

On December 1, dYdX, the layer-2 decentralized exchange, will unlock 150 million DYDX worth roughly $478 million to early investors and core team members. This substantial unlock has raised concerns among investors, who fear the influx of fresh tokens could substantially increase supply.

If this is not matched by high demand, DYDX prices will likely pull back, reversing recent gains posted over the past few trading weeks. 

According to Bubblemaps data, out of the $478 million worth of DYDX, over 50% is allocated to venture capitalists (VCs), including Paradigm and Polychain. Zooming back and looking at their data, VCs seeded $100 million to the layer-2 decentralized exchange.

These tokens were distributed to private investors through five wallets, including Coinbase Custody, Investor Distribution, and the Foundation Wallet.

Currently trading at over $3, DYDX is at February 2023 levels and technically bullish. However, the upcoming token unlock casts a shadow over the token’s positive momentum.

Notably, dYdX, postponed its token unlock by ten months. According to data, the humongous DYDX unlock was initially postponed from February to December 2023. Following this move, DYDX prices edged higher.

Even so, prices pulled back before consolidating in the better part of Q2, Q3, and early Q4 2023. There was a pronounced rally in late October 2023 as DYDX rose, riding the optimism across the crypto board.

At spot rates, DYDX is up 82% from October 2023 highs. However, looking at price action, bears are retesting the 20-day moving average of the BB. A break below this level might trigger a sell-off, pushing prices back to October 2023 highs.

While it is likely that prices could contract ahead or after the unlocking event, the team has devised a way of mitigating the expected selling pressure. To illustrate, the initial unlock will release 30% of the total amount. Afterward, there will be monthly equal releases over the next three years. 

 For optimists, however, that a significant portion of these tokens will go to the team, and investors could end up supporting prices. Team members and venture capitalists trade less frequently than retail investors, meaning the expected liquidation pressure, if any, could be limited.

Moreover, some team members and even early investors might consider re-staking DYDX from their infrastructure, giving them more control. 

Even with this release, crypto participants are upbeat, anticipating Bitcoin prices to track higher ahead of the expected spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). More tailwinds could result from the Bitcoin halving event in early Q2 2024.