Gemini Wants Apex’s Crypto Prediction Flow. But Apex Already Has Kalshi

Gemini is moving to turn its in-house prediction market infrastructure into a broker distribution business, ten days after Cameron Winklevoss called predictions “the largest near-term growth opportunity on the platform.”

A non-binding letter of intent with Apex Fintech Solutions would make Gemini the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts distributed through Apex’s Futures Commission Merchant (FCM).

Under the proposed arrangement, brokerages offering these contracts through Apex’s FCM would use Gemini for execution and clearing. The companies have yet to agree on the final terms.

Gemini Aims at Broker Distribution

The proposed collaboration follows Gemini’s second-quarter results, in wich the company stated that its prediction-markets business generated $500,000 or 1% of the total revenue.

Despite the limited contribution, Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss described predictions during the earnings call as the platform’s largest near-term growth opportunity.

The Apex arrangement outlines one way Gemini plans to expand the business: contract flow could come from brokerage customers connected through Apex, rather than only from users accessing Gemini directly.

By prior arrangements, Gemini’s regulated subsidiaries would provide the infrastructure solutions. Gemini Titan holds a CFTC Designated Contract Market licence, while Gemini Olympus has a Derivatives Clearing Organisation licence covering clearing and settlement.

“We deliberately chose to build our predictions platform in-house,” Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss said. He added that this structure allows the company to make the product available to partners such as Apex.

Crypto Exclusivity Meets Existing Kalshi Access

The exclusivity clause is notable because Apex already offers brokers access to Kalshi through its API-based event-contract infrastructure.

That service allows brokers and fintech companies to integrate Kalshi contracts into their own interfaces without building direct exchange connectivity or separate FCM infrastructure.

Kalshi provides the regulated marketplace, while Apex supplies the connection and supporting account infrastructure. Under the Gemini LOI, however, crypto event contracts distributed through Apex’s FCM would be executed and cleared exclusively by Gemini.

The companies could also collaborate on contracts covering sports, economics and financial markets, but those categories would remain non-exclusive.

The announcement does not explain how the proposed crypto exclusivity would interact with Apex’s existing Kalshi integration. It also provides no product specifications, commercial terms, eligible brokerages or customers, or launch date.

The companies said they expect to finalise the details in the coming weeks, but they have not yet signed a definitive agreement.