Investors flee from risk assets as JPMorgan ups recession odds to 40%

Crypto and tech stocks saw large selloffs on March 10 as fears of a US recession heightened despite efforts from the White House to temper concerns. 

Economists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have raised their recession risk this year to 40%, up from 30% at the beginning of 2025. “We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies,” wrote the analysts, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

Analysts at Goldman Sachs economists also raised their 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from 15%. They said that the forecast could rise further if the Trump administration remains “committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data.” 

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economists lowered their economic growth forecasts last week and raised inflation expectations. The bank predicted a GDP growth of just 1.5% in 2025, falling to 1.2% in 2026. 

It comes despite a key economic adviser to US President Donald Trump pushed back against talks of a recession. Speaking to CNBC on March 10, Kevin Hassett, who heads the National Economic Council, said there were many reasons to be optimistic about the US economy. 

“There are a lot of reasons to be extremely bullish about the economy going forward. But for sure, this quarter, there are some blips in the data,” he said. 

Meanwhile, in an interview with Fox News on March 9, Donald Trump responded to a question about the possibility of a recession by saying the US economy was going through “a period of transition.”

Blockchain betting platform Polymarket quipped that recession odds are “the best looking chart in finance right now.”

Source: Polymarket

The so-called “Trump bump” has dissipated, with the S&P 500 now lower than it was before his Nov. 5 US election victory. 

The index has lost almost 10% from last month’s high, and the Nasdaq is already in a correction, having lost 14% in just three weeks.

The Nasdaq has lost almost 10% this year. Source: Google Finance 

All US stock markets ended March 10 in the red, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7% to its lowest level since September, the tech-heavy Nasdaq having its worst day since 2022 in a 4% fall, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 900 points or roughly 2.1%.

The Magnificent 7 — America’s top tech firms — have had a tumultuous start to the week, collectively shedding more than $750 billion in market cap in one day. Tesla tanked a whopping 15%, becoming the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.

AI giant Nvidia lost 5.1%, Apple shed 4.9%, Meta fell 4.4% and Alphabet lost 4.5% on the day. 

Related: Biggest red weekly candle ever: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Meanwhile, crypto markets have plunged to their lowest point since early November, with a 7.5% fall in total market capitalization to $2.6 trillion on March 11, with around $240 billion exiting the space. 

Crypto market cap declines 1 month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin (BTC) has also fallen through previous levels of support, dropping 4% on the day and hitting $76,784 before a minor recovery took the asset back to $79,000 at the time of writing. 

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