JPMorgan Sees Stablecoin Outlook as Less Rosy Than Bulls Think

JPMorgan has cast doubt on the bullish projections surrounding stablecoins, predicting the market will only grow to $500b by 2028 and cautioning that trillion-dollar forecasts are “far too optimistic.”

The bank pointed to weak mainstream adoption and limited use beyond crypto trading as key hurdles to growth.

Reuters reported Friday that the brokerage said stablecoins remain largely confined to their original role as tools for trading and collateral within crypto markets.

Despite increased attention from lawmakers and financial institutions, JPMorgan estimated that just 6% of stablecoin demand, or roughly $15b, comes from actual payments activity.

“The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality,” the bank said.

Stablecoins, typically pegged to the US dollar, have gained momentum in recent years as fintechs and traditional banks explored blockchain-based payments and settlement options.

The market has grown 23% so far this year, reaching $254b in total value. Yet, JPMorgan warned that this expansion does not equate to mass-market utility.

Optimism surged last month when the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act, the most comprehensive crypto legislation to date, aiming to provide regulatory clarity around stablecoin issuance. Ahead of the vote, Standard Chartered predicted the stablecoin market could reach $2t by 2028, while Bernstein set its long-term forecast closer to $4t.

Still, JPMorgan pushed back on those views, pointing out that adoption outside of crypto trading remains minimal and fragmented.

While countries like China are advancing state-backed digital currencies, most have focused on national initiatives rather than embracing privately issued stablecoins. In June, China’s central bank pledged to expand the cross-border use of the digital yuan.

Even in the private sector, signals remain mixed. Ant Group, which operates Alipay through its international arm, said it plans to apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong.

But JPMorgan dismissed comparisons to China’s e-CNY or the dominance of platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay, saying they do not offer a roadmap for global stablecoin success.

US-based companies appear equally cautious. PayPal CEO Alex Chriss recently acknowledged that stablecoins are not yet ready for mass adoption in the US, citing a lack of strong consumer incentives.

He noted that PayPal has begun offering rewards to encourage usage but added, “There isn’t a real incentive to drive adoption.”

For now, JPMorgan’s forecast suggests the stablecoin story may grow slower than many had hoped, as regulatory hurdles, infrastructure gaps and limited demand continue to weigh on the sector’s broader ambitions.

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