Polymarket bets on Mark Carney for PM as Canadians head to the polls

Update (April 29 at 12:40 am UTC): This article has been updated to include information on Elon Musk’s and Brian Armstrong’s citizenships.

Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine Canada’s next prime minister appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.

As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race to become the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.

The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a sharp change in the two candidates’ prospects since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January.

Trudeau and the Liberal Party faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.

Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” Trump also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March.

In contrast to the 2024 US election, in which Trump often made statements suggesting he would enact policies favorable to the crypto industry, neither Carney nor Poilievre seemed to have made digital assets central to their campaigns.

Similar to Trump, Poilievre made a social media post in 2022 suggesting he would make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world” if elected leader of his party. This statement was made months before Trump began claiming he would make the US the “crypto capital of the world.” However, the Conservative candidate has largely stayed silent on digital assets since 2022, following the market downturn spurred by the collapses of Terra and FTX.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk — also a Trump adviser — and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong made social media posts in January suggesting support for Poilievre. Musk is a Canadian citizen through his mother and is likely eligible to vote in the election. He also holds South African citizenship by birth and is a naturalized US citizen.

Related: Why Pierre Poilievre may not be Canada’s crypto savior

In contrast, Carney was critical of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies while serving as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, calling them “poor short-term stores of value.” After leaving the bank, he gave a speech with the Bank for International Settlements supporting a central bank currency (CBDC).

Despite the prime minister’s Liberal Party credentials and its association with Trudeau’s efforts to crack down on truckers blocking streets and disrupting travel in a 2022 protest, polls show Carney is favored to defeat Poilievre. Polls suggested the prime minister’s opposition to Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex Canada using “economic force” played a role in boosting Carney’s chances.

The results of the snap Canadian election are expected to be announced by April 30.

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