Polymarket Bettors’ Recession Odds Surge Over 50% Amid Brutal 2 Day Market Decline

Key Takeaways:

• In a striking shift, 60% of Polymarket bettors now predict a 2025 recession—a nine-point jump in just 24 hours—immediately following Trump’s dramatic unveiling of sweeping global tariffs.
• While the Dow cratered nearly 3,700 points in two days amid tariff panic, Bitcoin bucked the trend, climbing to over $84K—a potential signal of investor flight to digital hedges.
• Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric, framed as economic justice for American workers, has sent shockwaves through financial and prediction markets—fueling fears of a self-inflicted economic slowdown.

A new Polymarket poll shows that the majority of bettors believe that a 2025 recession will happen—just two days after the U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his controversial “Liberation Day” tariff plans on April 2.

According to the decentralized prediction market’s poll, 60% of the platform’s participating bettors believe that an economic recession will occur this year.

The surge in bettors’ belief of a probable recession this year is not insignificant, especially considering that the same figure was nine points lower just 24 hours prior.

When the poll was created in January, only 20% of the site’s users voted that a recession would most likely take place in 2025.

The startling percentage comes shortly after Trump announced steep tariffs on goods from virtually all countries.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far – both friend and foe alike,” Trump said during an April 2 policy unveiling at the White House Rose Garden.

“American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen – we have a lot of them here with us today – they really suffered gravely,” he continued.

The announcement has ignited chaos in the global marketplace, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting an estimated total of 3,700 points over the span of just two days.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 ends the week down -9.1% in its largest weekly drop since March 2020, erasing -$4 TRILLION of market cap.

Today marked the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's worst day since March 2020. pic.twitter.com/h02V2tzMR7

The value of Bitcoin, however, was up by 2.6% to slightly above $84,000 on Friday despite having dropped below $82,000 as of yesterday.

Critics argue that Trump’s controversial tariff policies will negatively impact global trade and consumers as a whole, though the president appears unmoved in his belief that his plan will bolster American independence and manufacturing.

With tariffs set to take effect imminently, it’s still unclear how the digital asset industry will be impacted by the potential financial crisis in the long term.

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