Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Crashed From 82% to Under 20%, Does September 15 Save the Bill?

Polymarket CLARITY Act odds being signed into law this year fell below 20% early this week. The decline followed months of uncertainty over whether the Senate can advance the crypto market-structure legislation.

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The Senate adjourned for its August recess without a vote on the bill. Before lawmakers left town, Senate Majority Leader Thune scheduled a vote for September 15, American Banker reported.

American Banker described September 30 as the last clear deadline before Congress turns more fully toward campaigns and partisanship.

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"I do think that the crypto and the banking sectors can coexist. I think we can be the crypto capital of the world."

"We're working with the Senators" on this bill. pic.twitter.com/3SldlEBEOS

The scheduled September vote keeps the bill in play, but negotiations over its remaining provisions have yet to produce a final outcome.

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Polymarket traders gave the bill a 20% chance of passing by year-end, down from a high of 82% on February 19.

The odds had declined since early May as the Senate calendar narrowed and lawmakers faced questions about assembling bipartisan support.

Senate negotiations have remained focused on unresolved ethics provisions. CoinDesk described the absence of bipartisan ethics language as one of the bill’s largest obstacles, while American Banker noted that a merged text combining the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions had recently been released.

If enacted, the Clarity Act would establish a federal framework for digital-asset markets and draw a clearer line between assets regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and those overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Supporters of the measure argue that clearer statutory rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty and bring crypto activity onshore. They have also argued that legislation would provide durable rules rather than leaving the industry to operate under agency guidance.

The September 15 vote is the next scheduled milestone for the legislation. American Banker argued that September 30 is the last clear deadline before campaign considerations make further movement more difficult.

For now, the sub-20% Polymarket reading reflects skepticism about whether the Senate can resolve the outstanding issues and move the bill forward this year. The bill’s House passage, Senate committee approval and scheduled September vote show that the legislation remains active, but its unresolved ethics provisions continue to weigh on its prospects.

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