Reviewing El Salvador’s Bukele Predictions for 2022: What Went Wrong?

Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador and die-hard Bitcoin enthusiast, formulated a series of predictions about the behavior of bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem for the past year. These included the top price of bitcoin, the influence of the cryptocurrency on U.S. elections, the issuance of the volcano bonds, and also the construction of Bitcoin City. However, he missed the mark on most of them.

The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, one of the biggest promotors of bitcoin in Latam, and the man behind the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender in his country, made a series of predictions about the cryptocurrency world and its movements for 2022. The predictions touched on issues like bitcoin pricing, the influence of bitcoin on politics, and also the development of several El Salvador-specific developments related to Bitcoin.

The first prediction, revealed in a tweet on Jan. 1, 2022, had to do with the price that bitcoin would reach, calculated by Bukele to be around $100,000. This did not become true, as the maximum price that BTC reached was around $47,500.

The second of Bukele’s predictions stated that two more countries would adopt bitcoin as legal tender. This also failed to become reality. However, St. Kitts and Nevis did announce it would be exploring the possibility of making bitcoin cash (BCH) legal tender by March 2023, “once the safeguards to our country and our people are guaranteed,” as Prime Minister Terrance Drew stated on Nov. 12.

Another prediction was that bitcoin would “become a major electoral issue in U.S. elections this year.” While bitcoin-related issues have been part of the political and regulatory landscape of the U.S. during 2022, more with the demise of FTX during these last two months, this prediction also missed its mark by quite a bit.

The second half of the predictions made by Bukele had to do more with Salvador-specific issues, including the status of the volcano bonds, which would be issued by the government to finance the construction of Bitcoin City, and also with the construction of the city itself.

The fourth prediction that Bukele stated was that the construction of the Bitcoin City, the geothermal-powered, bitcoin mining-friendly city, would start last year. However, this also failed to happen, with one of the last statements related to its construction happening on Jan. 9, 2022, when Bukele explained they were drilling more geothermal wells to secure the energy needed to run the city.

This also has to do with his fifth prediction, which explained that the volcano bonds would be oversubscribed. However, the issuance of volcano bonds did not occur in 2022, with Treasury Minister Alejandro Zelaya blaming the postponements of the issuance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the fall of the cryptocurrency market. In September, Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino also stated that these bonds would be further delayed because the laws supporting the issuance were still not ready

Its sixth and final prediction stated a surprise to be revealed at The Bitcoin Conference, which was held in April in Miami. However, Bukele was not able to appear in the event, as El Salvador faced an onslaught of gang violence that started in March, with a response from the government qualified as “cruel and inhuman” by the United Nations.

What do you think about the predictions of Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador, for 2022? Tell us in the comments section below.