Stellar (XLM) Breakout Eyes 30% Rally – Will It Repeat Last Cycle’s Playbook?

After breaking out of its five-month downtrend, an analyst suggests a repeat of Stellar (XLM)’s last cycle playbook could be on the horizon. The cryptocurrency has confirmed its breakdown from a bullish reversal pattern and eyes a surge toward new targets

Amid the market pump, Stellar has broken out of a key demand zone and retested the $0.30 mark for the first time since March. The cryptocurrency has been in a downtrend since its November 2024 breakout, when it reached a three-year high of $0.63.

During this year’s retraces, XLM dropped 68% from the highs to a five-month low of $0.20. However, the late-April market recovery saw the cryptocurrency surge above the downtrend and attempt to confirm the breakout after recording a weekly close above the $0.28 mark.

On Friday, Stellar has reclaimed the $0.29 resistance and retested the $0.30 mark for the first time in nearly two months. Following today’s performance, Ali Martinez pointed out that Stellar is breaking out of a two-month inverse head and Shoulder pattern.

This pattern is a bullish reversal setup that suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Earlier this week, the analyst pointed out that the pattern’s right shoulder was forming and the neckline sat around the $0.29 mark.

According to his post, a breakout from this formation potentially eyed a 30% rally toward the $0.39 resistance, lost during the February retraces.

Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that the cryptocurrency confirmed the end of its multi-month downtrend and a breakout from its Downtrending Channel.

Per the post, if XLM weekly closes above its key area, between $0.27-$0.29, any dips into this zone would figure as a successful reclaim of the area as support to support a move to higher regions.

The analyst explained that reclaiming the $0.27-$0.29 area is crucial because it is a “historical demand region on the monthly timeframe.” In the past, turning this zone into support during bull markets has enabled Stellar to rally toward the $0.37-$0.40 mark.

In 2021, the cryptocurrency rallied toward its cycle high of $0.80 after retesting the key demand zone and breaking out of the $0.37 barrier. Similarly, it hit its all-time high (ATH) of $0.87 after a breakout from this area.

If XLM repeats history and rallies to the next resistance, it must reclaim and confirm that level to continue with its historical tendencies. “As such, a reclaim could see XLM challenge the $0.52 blue highs over time,” Rekt Capital concluded.

Meanwhile, analyst CW has noted that after breaking the upper line of the downtrend channel, Stellar would encounter resistance in two selling walls, one between the $0.34-$0.38 levels, and a big one around the $0.47-$0.70 zone.

As of this writing, Stellar trades at $0.296, a 2% increase in the daily timeframe.