Bitget Research: BTC & ETH Forecast for March 2024

Bitcoin forecast for March 2024

BTC initiated a new round of upward movement on the Feb. 27th, breaking through the previous high to US$57,000. The total market capitalisation of BTC is US$24.75 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of US$80.9 billion. The trading volume of nine Bitcoin ETFs in the United States also reached a new high at US$3.2 billion. Institutional bullish sentiment is strong, and with 54 days remaining until the Bitcoin halving, coupled with expectations of a mid-year Fed rate cut, Bitcoin is expected to find support at US$50,000, potentially experiencing volatility in March to challenge historical highs. Resistance above is seen at US$60,000 and US$69,000, while support below is in the range of US$48,000 to US$52,000.

Ethereum forecast for March 2024

The current price of ETH relative to BTC is relatively weak, but it is gradually accelerating upwards. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has surpassed 0.06, driven by Bitcoin’s rise of over 10% on Feb. 27, although it has retraced somewhat. However, it has risen by over 13% in the past half month. The main positive factors in Q1 2024 come from the situation of the Cancun upgrade, with various Layer 2 and restaking projects accelerating the lock-up of ETH inventory. There is a chance for it to break above US$3,500, with support at US$3,100 and a concentrated chip area at US$2,900.

On the macroeconomic level, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March has decreased, coupled with the current economic data, suggesting the first Fed rate cut may occur in May 2024. Based on this, the approval results of ETH’s ETF may start to ferment, potentially leading to a trend stronger than BTC. In an optimistic scenario, ETH may test the US$4,300 range, the high point in 2021, with the actual range depending on market liquidity, expected to oscillate between US$2,500 and US$3,500 for most of the time.

According to past cycles, there is a possibility that BTC will experience further growth to reach a peak within six months to a year and a half after halving, and ETH may follow suit with a breakthrough. With the entry of leading mainstream financial institutions, it can be anticipated that collective market forces will drive ETH to achieve a historical high in 2024, surpassing US$4,900.

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