Ethereum (ETH) Next Rally Could Start With These Two Triggers, Top Analyst Says

Over the past fourteen days, Ethereum (ETH) has retraced by roughly 9%, and it is now probing the key psychological $2,000 support. Amid this weakening phase, technical analyst Ali Martinez pointed to what he described as “two triggers” that could potentially help ETH turn bullish again.

In a recent social media post on X (formerly Twitter), Martinez noted that Ethereum has largely been confined to a broad, multi-year trading range since 2021. In his view, recent price action offered a telling confirmation of that structure. 

The market experienced what he called a clean rejection at the midpoint of that range, which coincided with the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $2,300. Because ETH failed to reclaim that level, Martinez said the chart has continued to display weakness rather than recovery.

Looking at the levels that matter most right now, Martinez singled out $1,850 as the critical point on the weekly chart. He warned that if Ethereum records a weekly close below that level, downside momentum could build quickly. 

From there, he argued that the broader channel structure suggests two larger downside targets after the rejection—first an interim support area around $1,560, and then a move toward approximately $1,070. 

In addition to the Simple Moving Average indicator and structural levels, Ali Martinez also highlighted the 0.8 Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) pricing band, a metric traders use to gauge valuation and help identify potential accumulation zones. 

According to his analysis, this widely watched band is currently sitting near $1,850, just 10% below the zone that Ethereum is now testing. Historically, when ETH moves below the 0.8 MVRV band, the decline has not typically been sustained for long. 

The analyst also said this key price zone often functions as a “high-probability macro accumulation window”—one that can help form the underlying base for the next bull market. Even so, Ali Martinez made it clear that a full bearish thesis would need to be invalidated before the bullish case can re-emerge. 

For the downside scenario to be effectively negated and Ethereum to flip back toward a bullish direction, he said two specific “triggers” must occur in the short-term for the cryptocurrency. 

The first is ETH reclaiming the 200-week SMA, which currently sits at around $2,500. The second trigger would follow only after that: a clean break above the 50-week SMA, which Martinez placed around $3,100.

Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com