Ethereum Has Outperformed Bitcoin Only 15% of the Time Since Launch, Analysts Say

Since the launch of Ethereum in 2015, it has only outperformed Bitcoin on 15% of trading days, according to data shared by analysts.

Glassnode’s lead analyst James Check posted on X, noting that Ether has historically lagged behind the leading cryptocurrency in most market cycles.

Ethereum had a brief edge over Bitcoin in its early years, particularly between mid-2015 and mid-2017, and again in late 2019 to early 2020.

Since early 2020, Bitcoin has maintained dominance.

The ETH/BTC ratio—a key metric comparing Ether’s value to Bitcoin’s—has now dropped to a five-year low of 0.018, the lowest level since December 2019. At that time, ETH was priced at $125 while BTC traded around $7,000.

On April 9, Ethereum dropped further to around $1,400, shedding nearly 10% in 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

In contrast, Bitcoin fell 6% to $75,000 but remains up nearly 275% from its 2017 bull cycle high, while ETH has slipped below its previous 2018 peak.

The gap in performance has led to growing concerns among Ethereum supporters.

“I love Ethereum. However, it’s time to face reality: Ethereum has had [around] the same number of active addresses for the past 4 years,” said Web3 researcher Stacy Muur on X.

I love Ethereum.
However, it's time to face reality:
Ethereum has had ~ the same number of active addresses for the past 4 years.

This isn't the "efficiency zone," I'm afraid.
This is stagnation. pic.twitter.com/qg9TaeVasT

While this metric shows stagnation on Ethereum’s mainnet, others point to growth in activity on layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum and Optimism, which are helping to scale Ethereum and now hold significant value locked, per data from L2beat.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s transaction fees have also plummeted to their lowest level since late August, averaging just $0.41 per transfer.

The significant decrease marks a stark contrast to the $15.21 high seen in the past two years, indicating potential bullish sentiment for Ethereum’s long-term price outlook.

Historically, low transaction fees on the Ethereum network signal reduced congestion, meaning fewer users are competing to process transactions.

Last week, crypto venture capitalist Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures pointed to two key issues undermining Ether’s value: the rise of layer-2 (L2) scaling networks and unchecked token issuance.

He argued that “greedy Eth L2s” are siphoning off value from Ethereum’s base layer while giving little back.

He also criticized the Ethereum community’s acceptance of excessive token creation, claiming that “ETH was buried in an avalanche of its own tokens. Died by its own hand.”

Carter’s comments followed a similarly stark assessment from Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital, who declared that Ethereum is “completely dead” as an investment.

Thompson cited declining transaction activity, reduced user growth, and falling network revenues as signs that ETH no longer offers a strong investment case, despite its utility as a blockchain platform.

The #1 cause of this is greedy eth L2s siphoning value from the L1 and the social consensus that excess token creation was A-OK. Eth was buried in an avalanche of its own tokens. Died by its own hand.

Back in September 2024, Carter warned that Ethereum’s fee revenue had plummeted by 99% over six months as L2s captured user activity and revenue without contributing to Ethereum’s base layer.

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