Ethereum price may have bottomed, but pro traders show little interest in buying ETH

Ether (ETH) price has risen 6.4% from its March 30 $1,768 low but the altcoin has struggled to regain the $2,000 level. Some traders believe that the downturn is partially connected to the deflating memecoin market, which, while not exclusive to the Ethereum network, significantly reduced activity across the decentralized applications (DApps) ecosystem and broader crypto space.

Ether is currently 44% down year-to-date, and derivatives metrics indicate that traders are far from bullish and show little confidence in a strong recovery in the near term. Proof of this can be found in the premium on Ether futures relative to spot markets. 

While the figure rose to 4% on April 2, up from 2% on March 31, it is still below the neutral 5% threshold. This data indicates that Ether investors remain far from turning bullish, despite the strengthening support at the $1,800 price level.

Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

To assess whether whales and market makers lack confidence in Ether’s performance, one should analyze the ETH options market. Under neutral conditions, the 25% delta skew should be balanced between call (buy) and put (sell) options, typically ranging from -6% to 6%.

Deribit ETH 30-day options 25% delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

The Ether delta skew metric has retreated from the 9% level seen on March 31, yet the current 7% reading suggests that risk-aversion sentiment remains strong. The rising cost of hedging indicates that whales fear further downside for ETH, suggesting it may take longer for traders to regain confidence.

It’s easy to attribute much of Ether’s price decline to the 49% drop in Ethereum DApps revenue between January and March. However, while the reduced network activity limits the influx of new users and dampens overall demand for ETH, its advantages over traditional financial markets and its dominance in decentralized finance (DeFi) remain unchanged.

The stablecoin holdings on Ethereum are nearing an all-time high of $124.5 billion, and Ethereum is still the undisputed leader, with $49 billion in total value locked (TVL). This data suggests significant potential for ETH adoption, particularly as new use cases emerge, such as structured products and more complex DeFi applications leveraging synthetic assets.

Despite the early struggles of metaverse applications, declining interest in memecoins, and the sharp downturn in non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace activity, the Ethereum network continues to expand.

Instead of focusing solely on how professional traders are positioned, it is also valuable to assess retail investors’ sentiment. Perpetual futures (inverse swaps) typically follow spot prices closely, as leverage imbalances are corrected through a fee known as the funding rate, which is charged every eight hours. In neutral markets, this rate fluctuates between 0.1% and 0.3% over a seven-day period.

Ether 8-hour perpetual futures funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The ETH perpetual funding rate has been neutral since March 31, indicating that retail traders are not attempting to catch a falling knife. A key factor behind this lack of enthusiasm is the spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $37 million in net outflows over the past two weeks.

While derivatives data is often backward-looking and does not necessarily signal further ETH price declines, sentiment could shift quickly given the positive momentum from the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial investment in ETH and Eric Trump’s vocal support for Ether. For the time being, professional traders and retail investors remain cautious about ETH’s price outlook.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.