Ethereum Rally Not Fueled By Bitcoin Dump, On-Chain Signals Show

Ethereum (ETH) has had an impressive July, surging over 60% from around $2,400 on July 1 to a high of $3,941 by July 27. What’s particularly notable about this rally is that it appears to be driven by fresh capital inflows – not a rotation out of Bitcoin (BTC), as some have suggested.

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Carmelo Aleman, claims that ETH’s current rally is a result of capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum are unfounded. Aleman references on-chain data – especially the Bitcoin Realized Cap – to explain his analysis.

For the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap measures the total value of all BTC in circulation based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain, rather than the current market price. It provides a more accurate view of actual capital invested in Bitcoin, helping identify accumulation or distribution trends over time.

Aleman shared the following chart showing that, as of July 25 at 11 AM UTC, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high (ATH) in Realized Cap at $1.018 trillion. This increase strongly suggests that capital remains flowing into Bitcoin – not out of it.

In fact, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has continued to rise, albeit gradually, even as Ethereum gained bullish momentum. Aleman explains that brief pauses in BTC price action typically align with phases of capital accumulation, which have historically preceded major rallies.

Further, Aleman remarked that ETH is simply benefitting from the strong growth prospects of the Ethereum ecosystem. July witnessed a significant surge in interest in the ETH ecosystem, which reflected in the steep rise in price of the digital asset.

Multiple metrics reinforce the view that new capital is entering the Ethereum ecosystem. For example, data from DefiLlama shows that the Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ethereum’s decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms has risen significantly – from $49 billion on April 29 to $84.6 billion by July 29.

Additional on-chain metrics point to a similar trend. According to etherscan.io, daily transactions on the Ethereum network have been climbing steadily, with nearly 1.48 million transactions recorded on July 27 alone.

There’s also growing speculation that Ethereum’s declining circulating supply is contributing to upward price pressure. Over the past month, ETH reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped by one million coins, supporting the narrative of a developing “supply crunch.”

Adding to that, Ethereum liquid staking recently reached a new record high, with 35.5 million ETH now locked in liquid staking protocols. At press time, ETH trades at $3,772, down 1% in the past 24 hours.