Ethereum Rising Wedge Warning: Breakdown Could Send Price Toward $1,500

Ethereum is showing early signs of a rising wedge formation, a pattern often associated with potential reversals. With key support under pressure, a breakdown from this structure could push the price lower, putting the $1,500 level firmly in focus as the next major target.

Luca, in a recent update, highlighted that Ethereum’s price has been rejected at the lost high-timeframe support range he referenced in previous PAT updates. This level also aligns with the 2D Bull Market Support Band at $2,180, making it a critical zone for assessing market direction. The rejection suggests that buyers are struggling to reclaim key support, keeping the market under pressure.

Examining the mid-term picture, Luca noted that since early February, Ethereum has been forming a rising wedge pattern. Rising wedges are often considered cautionary signals because they can precede corrective moves, indicating that the current upward attempts may lack the strength needed to sustain a rally.

Until there is clear evidence of a durable breakout above both the lost high-timeframe support range and the 2D Bull Market Support Band, Luca advises that traders should remain hedged and avoid overly aggressive positions. This strategy helps limit exposure while waiting for a more definitive market trend to emerge. For the time being, Luca plans to remain hedged to mitigate mid-term downside risk. 

The most probable scenario, according to his analysis, is continued consolidation within the lost high-timeframe range. If bearish pressure persists, Ethereum may continue the high-timeframe downtrend observed over the past few weeks. The next key high-timeframe support to monitor aligns with the early April 2025 lows near $1,500. 

Ethereum could present some interesting end-of-week trading opportunities. Lennaert Snyder revealed that price action around key levels may offer both short-term and mid-term setups for active traders.

According to the analyst, Ethereum is currently holding at the $2,036 low, which indicates a correlation with the Smart Money Theory (SMT) and Bitcoin. This alignment suggests that price movements in ETH may follow broader market trends seen in BTC, providing potential clues for trading decisions.

Snyder plans to enter shorts if Ethereum sweeps and rejects the buy-side liquidity above $2,099, using a bearish MSB as his trigger. Conversely, if price breaks above $2,099, he’ll target longs toward $2,163, relying on SMT with BTC and previously captured sell-side liquidity.

He also cautioned traders to be mindful of today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, which can create volatility across crypto markets. Sudden market reactions could impact ETH’s price action, making careful risk management essential around the news event.