Ethereum Struggles As Bitcoin Dominance Pushes ETH/BTC Pair To 4-Year Low

Ethereum (ETH) continues to lose ground to Bitcoin (BTC) as the latter’s dominance rises, with US President-elect Donald Trump set to take office later today. At the time of writing, the ETH/BTC trading pair stands at 0.031, marking a four-year low for the ratio.

Over the past year, Bitcoin has appreciated by an impressive 158%, surging from approximately $41,000 on January 21, 2024, to $107,608 at the time of writing. The cryptocurrency has consistently reached new all-time highs (ATH) throughout the year. In contrast, Ethereum has delivered a modest return of approximately 35% over the same period and remains 32% below its November 2021 ATH of $4,878. 

According to the weekly chart below from TradingView, the ETH/BTC trading pair — also referred to as the ETH/BTC ratio within the crypto industry — has reached a fresh four-year low. This decline has raised concerns about the likelihood of an Ethereum-led altcoin season.

Currently trading at 0.031, the ETH/BTC ratio has erased all gains accumulated since March 2021. The pair peaked at 0.087 in December 2021, during the height of that year’s altcoin season. Since then, however, Ethereum, the second-largest digital asset by market capitalization, has experienced a steady decline against Bitcoin.

In May 2024, the ratio fell below 0.054, a critical support level that had previously held firm in June 2022. Several factors have contributed to Ethereum’s underperformance, including Trump’s perceived preference for Bitcoin and the rising competition from rival smart-contract platforms like Solana (SOL).

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has struggled with adoption. Corporations worldwide are increasingly incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, reinforcing BTC’s status as a premier digital asset. Additionally, speculation about the creation of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve has further bolstered the narrative around Bitcoin’s limited supply, driving its price higher.

Conversely, Ethereum’s relatively high issuance rate has cast doubt on its “ultrasound money” narrative. Ethereum’s 2024 performance has also eroded confidence among some of its largest holders. Notably, an ETH whale recently sold 10,070 ETH at a $1 million loss, signaling waning investor trust.

While 2024 was a challenging year for Ethereum in terms of price performance, crypto analysts remain optimistic about the asset’s prospects in 2025. For example, a report by Steno Research predicts that Ethereum could surge to as high as $8,000 this year.

Similarly, crypto analyst Daan forecasts that the ETH/BTC trading pair could rise above 0.04 during Q1 2025. In December 2024, Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced renewed interest from institutional investors, fueling hopes for significant capital inflows into the smart-contract platform.

That said, Ethereum must first overcome strong resistance at the $4,000 price level. At press time, ETH trades at $3,368, down 1.3% in the past 24 hours.