Unlucky Number 7: Ethereum Makes Seventh Milestone 50% Drawdown

Ethereum rides ahead on the crypto market’s most recent trend to the upside. As of press time, ETH, BTC, and larger cryptocurrencies show signs of recovery with potential for continuation in the short term, if they manage to break above their resistance levels.

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As of press time, Ethereum (ETH) trades at $2,788 with a 6.5% profit in the last 24 hours.

Data from Arcane Research indicates that Ethereum has seen its seventh 50% drawdown since its inception. The second crypto by market cap dropped to a yearly low of $2,200 which represents a 55% decrease from its high at $4,812.

During the crypto market most recent downside trend, ETH lost a total of over $280 billion in market cap which represents its biggest decline on this metric since its launched. By taking ETH’s price as a proxy, it is possible to conclude the altcoin market as a whole suffered deeply in the past two months.

In that sense, Arcane Research determined that this bearish price action to its yearly lows was one of Ethereum slowest in its history. It took ETH’s price around 75 days to reached $2,200 compared to a 38-day average.

Conversely, Ethereum has always experienced a higher average in terms of recovery. It takes ETH’s price an average of 165 days to returned to previous highs, per conclusions from Arcane Research. The firm added the following on the cryptocurrency’s recovery periods, and its worst period to date, the crypto winter of 2018:

Ethereum and the broader crypto ecosystem look very different from 2016-2018. Still, if history is any indication, and leaving out a new glacial period like 2018, we could perhaps see prices back in the $4,000 range as early as July 2022.

Developments in the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) monetary policy will most likely operate as an obstacle for Ethereum, and the rest of the crypto market. Although the short terms appear bullish, BTC and ETH have been heavily correlated with the traditional market.

Trading firm QCP Capital recently posted 4 upcoming events from institutions in the U.S. which seems poised to bring some short-term volatility into ETH and the crypto market. On February 8th, the U.S. Congress will host a hearing on Stablecoins, two days later the government is expected to publish new Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers.

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This metric has been acting as a headwind for cryptocurrencies since Q4, 2021. Used to measure inflation in the U.S., the higher the CPI, the likely it is for the FED to accelerate its shift in monetary policy. By mid-February, the FED’s FOMC is set to release minutes and on March 17, the same entity could announce an increase in interest rates.

In the long term, Ethereum records bullish fundamentals as it moves closer to The Merge, the fusion between its execution layer (ETH 1.0) and its consensus layer (ETH 2.0). The event could propel ETH into uncharted territory, at least, on its BTC trading pair. QCP Capital said:

ETHBTC, which is holding its triangle support very well. Due to the difference in beta, generally a higher ETHBTC is a bullish signal and vice versa. We still hold the view that a powerful wave 5 will break old highs in ETH. That will possibly happen with the full implementation of ETH 2.0.