Why November Might Be A Game-Changer For The Ethereum Price

Unlike Bitcoin, the Ethereum price has struggled to hold up, and even after the crypto market recovery, the price remains below $4,000, which is a major psychological level. Given this, it seems that the cryptocurrency is set to close the month of October in the red, losing almost 5% of its value already this month. However, with the month of November quickly rolling by, the Ethereum price might be in for a bounce, as November has historically been green for the market.

Looking at the historical price data for Ethereum on the CryptoRank website, there seems to be a balance between years when the month was red and years when it was green. In a decade, there have been five years where the Ethereum price has seen gains in November and five years where there have been losses.

However, there seems to be a rather bullish pattern: the years when the month was green saw double-digit gains, eventually resulting in higher gains than losses. As a result, the average return for the month is 6.93%, and the median return, while low, also remains positive at 1.42%.

Given the fact that there is no clear trend to pinpoint where the price is headed, the bears and the bulls look to have equal chances. But if it does turn out to be in the green, it is likely that the Ethereum price will witness a double-digit surge. Such a move would help it clear the $4,000 resistance with momentum.

Quarterly returns for the Ethereum price have not exactly been the best in the last quarter of the year, but that has not changed the fact that the altcoin tends to perform quite well overall. There is also the trend of Q4 ending in the green if the previous Q2 and Q3 were in the green, which is the case right now.

In Q2 of 2025, the Ethereum price ended with an average positive return of 36.5% and in Q3, it followed with a 66.7% return, the highest so far. With October trending low, there is already a 4.83% decline this year, but with more than 2 months to go, there is still time for things to change.

Only one year in history has the Ethereum price closed Q4 in the red after Q2 and Q3 ended in the green, and that was nine years ago in 2016. Since then, the trend has always seen the ETH price continuing the rally. This was the case back in 2017, and then again in 2020 and 2021.

Since then, this trend has not returned, and 2025 is the first time in four years that the Ethereum price has ended both Q2 and Q3 in the green. If the historical performance holds, the Ethereum price could see an average of a 50% increase, or even double, like it did back in 2017 and 2020, before the year is over.