Fed decision headlines two weeks of inflation and jobs data

• The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, with no dot plot at this meeting, followed a day later by the Q2 GDP advance estimate and June PCE inflation data.
• Coinbase and Strategy report second-quarter earnings on Thursday, July 30, hours after the Fed decision; Strategy continues to hold 843,775 BTC, acquired for roughly $63.69 billion.
• The monthly Bitcoin and Ether options expiry on Deribit settles Friday, July 31, ahead of the July jobs report on August 7 and July CPI on August 12.
• If the Fed’s tone diverges from what GDP and PCE show the next morning, markets may need to reconcile conflicting signals quickly rather than settle into one narrative.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 29, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting, with no Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot at this meeting. The Committee held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% in June and said further action depends on incoming data, so this cycle the statement wording and Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference carry the signal rather than a rate move itself.

Less than a day later, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Personal Income and Outlays for June, which contains the PCE price index, alongside the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP, both at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, July 30.

If the statement leans toward patience on cuts, rate-sensitive assets including BTC and ETH may reprice; if it signals openness to easing, risk sentiment could shift. If the Fed’s tone then diverges from what GDP and PCE show the next morning, markets may need to reconcile the two signals quickly rather than settle into a single narrative. BTC/USD and ETH/USD, along with their futures and margin markets on Kraken Pro, are the most directly exposed to this cluster of releases.

Coinbase publishes second-quarter results after the US market close on Thursday, July 30, with a live Q&A session at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET) on X. Traders are watching this cycle because Coinbase posted a $394 million net loss in the first quarter, its second straight quarterly loss, and cut around 700 jobs, roughly 14% of its workforce.

Strategy, which holds 843,775 BTC acquired for roughly $63.69 billion, reports the same afternoon with a 5:00 p.m. ET webinar. The company’s most recently completed quarter, ended March 31, booked a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on its digital assets under fair-value accounting, part of a run of large swings that included a $17.44 billion unrealized loss in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Days before reporting, Strategy overhauled its Bitcoin metrics, introducing a Net Bitcoin Per Share figure and a roughly $36.6 billion Net Reserve that account for senior claims from its preferred stock and convertible debt, so this call will be the first test of the new framework against a fresh quarter.

If either company’s results or guidance surprise the market, COIN and MSTR moves can spill into broader crypto sentiment given both firms’ Bitcoin exposure, with BTC and ETH markets on Kraken Pro the most likely to reflect that spillover.

The monthly Bitcoin and Ether options expiry on Deribit settles at 08:00 UTC on the last Friday of July. Recent monthly BTC and ETH expiries have settled billions in notional, and max-pain strikes can act as gravitational levels into settlement, sometimes associated with short-term volatility as positions roll off. Depending on where spot trades relative to major strikes, the days around expiry can see choppier conditions. The next monthly expiry, August 28, falls outside this window.

Traders active in BTC and ETH derivatives on Kraken Pro may want to review position sizing and stop-loss placement ahead of the settlement.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET, covering nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. It is a primary input into the Fed’s policy path and arrives just over a week after the July FOMC decision, so it either reinforces or challenges the message from that meeting.

If payrolls come in stronger than expected, expectations for near-term rate cuts may cool; if the report is soft, easing expectations could build. Both paths tend to move rate-sensitive assets, including BTC and ETH.

The BLS publishes the July Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, the final scheduled release in this window. CPI is the most widely followed monthly inflation print, and this release lands between the July and September FOMC meetings, making it a key data point for how the market reads the Fed’s next step.

An inflation print that surprises to the upside may push back rate-cut expectations, while a cooler-than-expected print could support them; either can drive volatility across BTC, ETH, and other rate-sensitive markets on Kraken Pro.

Also on the calendar: the Bank of England rate decision (Thursday, July 30), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday, August 3), JOLTS job openings (Tuesday, August 4), Malaysia Blockchain Week (July 29–30), and Blockchain Rio (August 11–13). A Hyperliquid token unlock is scheduled for Thursday, August 6.

This window stands out for how tightly policy and data cluster: a Fed decision, two major crypto-linked earnings reports, and inflation and growth data all land within about 48 hours, with the jobs report and CPI following in the second week. That density is a function of the calendar, not a signal about what any single event will produce. Knowing which dates fall together, and what each scenario implies for the markets you trade, is the preparation to do before the data lands.

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