Shiba Inu Price Prediction: Shiba Inu Burn Rate Plunges as Whales Exit—Is a Crash Inevitable?

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the popular meme coin known for its massive community and viral appeal, is facing a critical moment as technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and investor sentiment all hint at a deepening bearish trend.

Once hailed for its aggressive burn strategy, Shiba Inu’s deflationary power now appears to be fading. According to data from Shibburn, the daily SHIB burn rate has fallen by 24% over the past week, with just 13.85 million tokens burned—a minuscule figure considering the project’s massive $7 billion market cap.

Shibarium TVL dropped to $2.15 million, down 7.82% in the last 24 hours. Source: DefiLama

Although there was a brief 4.19% spike in the burn rate—destroying nearly 19 million tokens—the broader trend shows declining token destruction, weakening SHIB’s appeal as a deflationary asset. Over 410 trillion tokens have been burned to date, but with 589 trillion still in total supply and 584 trillion in active circulation, scarcity alone is failing to sustain upward price momentum.

Further darkening the outlook, large holders—commonly referred to as whales—are exiting their SHIB positions. Santiment data shows that the total SHIB held by whales dropped from 743.8 trillion to 730 trillion since February, a net reduction of 13.8 trillion tokens.

Shiba Inu supply held by whales chart. Source: Santiment

In a striking move, a dormant whale wallet transferred 105 billion SHIB to Binance after three years of inactivity. This sizable transfer has raised concerns about an incoming sell-off, coinciding with increased market volatility and rising trader losses. As investor capitulation spreads, SHIB risks losing its support from early backers.

On the charts, Shiba Inu appears to be hanging by a thread. Analysts are closely watching a bearish head and shoulders pattern that recently broke below its neckline support. This classic reversal formation, when confirmed, points to a potential 28% decline, targeting $0.000009—the lowest level since January 2024.

Shiba Inu is consolidating near key support, with a breakout above $0.00001300 needed to avoid a drop toward $0.00001100. Source: paper_Trader1775 on TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits around 37, nearing oversold conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is treading just below neutral, showing no bullish crossover in sight. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is trending upward, confirming that bearish momentum is strengthening.

“The current technical setup suggests that sellers are firmly in control,” one analyst noted. “If SHIB fails to reclaim the neckline, a retest of $0.000009 seems increasingly likely.”

Adding to the gloom is a marked decline in ecosystem engagement. Data from DeFiLlama reveals that the total value locked (TVL) on Shibarium, Shiba Inu’s Layer-2 blockchain, has fallen 33% year-to-date, now standing at just $2.25 million.

This drop signals waning developer interest and user participation in the network. While Shibarium was launched with the aim of expanding Shiba Inu’s utility beyond meme coin status, the current stagnation undermines confidence in its long-term viability.

Despite the bearish backdrop, some indicators suggest a potential reversal may still be possible. With RSI nearing oversold territory and short-term support forming around $0.00001255–$0.00001260, a bounce-back could materialize, particularly if broader crypto sentiment improves.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) was trading at around $0.00001234, down 3.80% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Brave New Coin

Shiba Inu’s community-driven nature has historically helped it recover from sharp declines, and sustained burn efforts paired with decreased active liquidity (including 4.7 trillion SHIB staked) could help create upward pressure over time.

However, analysts caution that unless new utility developments or external catalysts emerge, any rally could be short-lived. “Right now, SHIB is in a vulnerable zone,” said one trader. “It needs strong community momentum or major ecosystem upgrades to break free from this downtrend.”

Shiba Inu’s current price struggles stem from a perfect storm of declining burn efficiency, large-scale whale exits, bearish technical setups, and falling network activity. While hope remains for a turnaround, especially among diehard SHIB supporters, the immediate outlook leans bearish unless significant changes occur.

With Pi Day 2 and mid-year catalysts approaching in other sectors, SHIB must either deliver renewed utility—or risk fading from the meme coin spotlight.