Analyst Says Cardano’s Most Accurate Indicator Just Flipped Bullish

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said a long-tracked SuperTrend signal on Cardano’s daily chart has flipped bullish, months after the same tool marked the start of a steep decline. The call comes alongside fresh on-chain data from Santiment showing large ADA wallets now holding a record share of supply.

Martinez framed the latest signal as notable because of the indicator’s prior timing. In a post on X, the analyst said the SuperTrend had been his most reliable tool for tracking Cardano’s larger directional shifts, pointing to a sell signal from late September 2025 that preceded a 73% decline in ADA.

“The SuperTrend indicator has been my most accurate tool for anticipating Cardano’s long-term shifts. I’ve been tracking it closely since September 25, 2025, when it flashed a sell signal that perfectly timed the start of a 73% price decline. After months of this heavy correction, the indicator has just flipped.”

The new signal does not amount to a guarantee of trend continuation, and Martinez attached specific levels to the setup. His first upside area is the $0.33 resistance zone, with a secondary target at $0.42 if momentum persists. The invalidation level, in his view, sits at $0.25.

“To me, this suggests that the local exhaustion phase is over and a trend reversal is finally in play,” Martinez wrote. “I expect a surge toward the $0.33 resistance zone. If the momentum sustains, my secondary target is sitting at $0.42.”

The technical signal is accompanied by a separate on-chain read from Santiment, which said Cardano’s largest wallet cohort has continued accumulating through the drawdown. According to the analytics firm, wallets holding at least 1 million ADA now control 25.09 billion tokens, representing 67.47% of the existing supply.

“Cardano’s key stakeholders have slowly but surely accumulated, consistently adding more and more of the existing supply to their bags, dating back to December, 2023,” Santiment wrote. “Although the asset has lost -71% of its market cap over the past 9 months, the ‘millionaire’ tier of sharks and whales appear to be content with adding more while prices are at a discount.”

The Santiment chart shows that 25.09 billion ADA balance as an all-time high for wallets with at least 1 million tokens. It also said the 67.47% supply share is the highest since July 2020. For traders, that creates a familiar but important tension: concentration among larger holders can be read as conviction during a selloff, but it also makes future price action more sensitive to whether those wallets continue accumulating, pause, or distribute into strength.

Together, the two signals give ADA a cleaner short-term setup than it has had for much of the correction. Martinez’s thesis depends on $0.25 holding as support, while the upside case requires the fresh SuperTrend buy signal to translate into sustained demand toward $0.33 and then $0.42. Santiment’s data adds a structural layer to that view, showing that large holders have been increasing exposure even as ADA’s market value contracted sharply.

At press time, ADA traded at $0.2664.